BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

On the board
51 priced of 128
Median gap
4.2
Straight up
104–32
Model state
EARLY SEASON
Wk 0 Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15
● Top projected winners 76% · 104-32 this season

The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.

Top projected winners ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Duke
-15.0 · 88%
over Stanford
-345 FanDuel
Pittsburgh
-13.8 · 85%
over Syracuse
-365 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-10.4 · 82%
over Houston
-340 ESPN Bet
Louisiana
-12.2 · 79%
over UAB
-340 DraftKings
Virginia
-11.5 · 76%
over West Virginia
-330 FanDuel
Vanderbilt
-9.5 · 73%
over NC State
-179 Caesars
North Texas
-1.1 · 69%
over Texas State
+125 BetMGM
Toledo
-10.0 · 69%
over Temple
-192 DraftKings
Top spread reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence
Ole Miss
+3.0
we differ by 3.2 pts
-110 BetMGM
Alabama
-20.5
we differ by 1.5 pts
best -18.5 -110 ESPN Bet
SMU
+2.0
we differ by 9.0 pts
best +2.5 -110 ESPN Bet
Texas A&M
-15.5
we differ by 2.0 pts
-110 ESPN Bet
Wake Forest
+22.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-109 Caesars
Auburn
+2.5
we differ by 0.8 pts
+100 Caesars
Texas Tech
-9.5
we differ by 0.9 pts
best -8.5 -105 ESPN Bet
Mississippi State
+3.5
we differ by 1.3 pts
-109 Caesars
Top total reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line
Under 58.5
-3.5 pts
LSU @ MISS · ours 55.0
-105 Caesars
Over 49.5
+1.2 pts
FSU @ ALA · ours 50.7
-110 BetMGM
Under 59.5
-4.0 pts
SMU @ LOU · ours 55.5
-108 DraftKings
Over 49.5
+4.2 pts
UK @ TA&M · ours 53.7
best 48.5 -115 ESPN Bet
Under 55.5
-3.4 pts
MIA @ WAKE · ours 52.1
-110 BetMGM
Under 53.5
-4.8 pts
FLA @ AUB · ours 48.7
-107 Caesars
Over 53.5
+1.1 pts
HOU @ TTU · ours 54.6
best 52.5 -115 ESPN Bet
Under 58.5
-4.3 pts
MSST @ SC · ours 54.2
-105 BetMGM
Top team totals our projected score against the book’s team total · 0 games priced this week

No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.

All games 128 Sheet Panels All games
KickoffMatchupDivOur side Our projectionMarket Best number (tap to add)
2026-09-177:30 PM ● Syracuse @ Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA FBS PITT -10.5Over 51.5PITT to winPITT 85% 19–33 · 52.5 -10.5 · 51.5
2026-09-187:30 PM ● Miami @ Wake Forest Winston-Salem, NC FBS WAKE +22.5Under 55.5MIA to winMIA 74% 34–18 · 52.1 +22.5 · 55.5
2026-09-188:00 PM ● Houston @ Texas Tech Lubbock, TX FBS TTU -9.5Over 53.5TTU to winTTU 82% 22–32 · 54.6 -9.5 · 53.5
2026-09-1810:30 PM Portland State @ Oregon Eugene, OR FCS FBS ORE to winORE 99% 9–55 · 64.3 — no line
2026-09-1911:30 AM Coastal Carolina @ Delaware Newark, DE FBS DEL -5.5Under 57.5DEL to winDEL 63% 25–32 · 57.2 -5.5 · 57.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM ● Georgia @ Arkansas Fayetteville, AR FBS ARK +24.5Over 54.5UGA to winUGA 75% 37–19 · 56.5 +24.5 · 54.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM ● Tulane @ Kansas State Manhattan, KS FBS KSU -19.5Under 49.5KSU to winKSU 80% 14–35 · 48.6 -19.5 · 49.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM ● Bowling Green @ Iowa State Ames, IA FBS BGSU +23Over 46.5ISU to winISU 94% 13–36 · 48.5 -23.0 · 46.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM ● Arizona State @ Kansas London · neutral FBS KU +6Over 52.5ASU to winASU 62% 29–24 · 53.1 +6.0 · 52.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM Mercer @ Georgia Tech Atlanta, GA FCS FBS GT to winGT 93% 15–38 · 52.9 — no line
2026-09-1912:00 PM ● North Carolina @ Clemson Clemson, SC FBS UNC +3.5Over 44.5CLEM to winUNC 61% 24–23 · 46.7 -3.5 · 44.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM ● Akron @ Minnesota Minneapolis, MN FBS AKR +26.5Under 49.5MINN to winMINN 65% 22–28 · 49.5 -26.5 · 49.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM ● Kent State @ Ohio State Columbus, OH FBS KENT +52.5Under 58.5OSU to winOSU 99% 6–44 · 50.4 -52.5 · 58.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM ● Buffalo @ Penn State University Park, PA FBS BUF +39.5Over 47.5PSU to winPSU 98% 8–43 · 50.3 -39.5 · 47.5
2026-09-1912:00 PM North Texas @ Texas State San Marcos, TX FBS UNT to winUNT 69% 32–30 · 61.8 —
2026-09-1912:00 PM Brown @ New Haven West Haven, CT FCS BRWN to winBRWN 69% 33–26 · 58.9 — no line
2026-09-1912:00 PM Lafayette @ Columbia New York, NY FCS COLU to winCOLU 51% 26–26 · 51.3 — no line
2026-09-1912:00 PM Dartmouth @ Lehigh Bethlehem, PA FCS LEH to winLEH 85% 18–35 · 53.6 — no line
2026-09-1912:00 PM Villanova @ Long Island University Brookville, NY FCS VILL to winVILL 78% 32–20 · 51.7 — no line
2026-09-1912:00 PM West Georgia @ East Tennessee State Johnson City, TN FCS ETSU to winETSU 81% 22–36 · 57.5 — no line
2026-09-1912:30 PM ● Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin Madison, WI FBS EMU +24.5Over 46.5WIS to winWIS 86% 15–32 · 47.3 -24.5 · 46.5
2026-09-1912:45 PM ● NC State @ Vanderbilt Nashville, TN FBS VAN -4.5Over 52.5VAN to winVAN 73% 22–32 · 53.5 -4.5 · 52.5
2026-09-191:00 PM Wyoming @ Central Michigan Mount Pleasant, MI FBS WYO +1.5Over 39.5CMU to winCMU 55% 23–23 · 46.1 -1.5 · 39.5
2026-09-191:00 PM Princeton @ Bryant Smithfield, RI FCS BRY to winBRY 63% 22–27 · 49.4 — no line
2026-09-191:00 PM Harvard @ New Hampshire Durham, NH FCS HARV to winHARV 81% 39–25 · 63.4 — no line
2026-09-191:00 PM Chicago State @ Butler Indianapolis, IN NON-D1 FCS BUT to winBUT 77% 24–36 · 59.2 — no line
2026-09-191:00 PM Cornell @ Colgate Hamilton, NY FCS COLG to winCOLG 76% 20–32 · 52.0 — no line
2026-09-191:00 PM Valparaiso @ Indiana State Terre Haute, IN FCS INST to winINST 77% 24–36 · 59.9 — no line
2026-09-191:00 PM VMI @ Davidson Davidson, NC FCS DAV to winDAV 63% 24–30 · 54.3 — no line
2026-09-191:00 PM Glenville State @ Mercyhurst Erie, PA NON-D1 FCS GLEN to winGLEN 61% 31–26 · 56.5 — no line
2026-09-192:00 PM Maine @ Boston College Chestnut Hill, MA FCS FBS BC to winBC 96% 12–40 · 51.8 — no line
2026-09-192:00 PM Southern Illinois @ Illinois Champaign, IL FCS FBS ILL to winILL 95% 16–43 · 58.8 — no line
2026-09-192:00 PM Yale @ Holy Cross Worcester, MA FCS YALE to winYALE 89% 36–16 · 51.8 — no line
2026-09-192:00 PM Southern Utah @ St. Thomas-Minnesota Saint Paul, MN FCS STMN to winSTMN 56% 30–33 · 63.6 — no line
2026-09-192:30 PM Rhode Island @ Stony Brook Stony Brook, NY FCS URI to winURI 79% 36–23 · 59.5 — no line
2026-09-192:30 PM Presbyterian @ Western Carolina Cullowhee, NC FCS WCU to winWCU 67% 30–36 · 65.9 — no line
2026-09-193:00 PM Temple @ Toledo Toledo, OH FBS TOL -5.5Under 51.5TOL to winTOL 69% 21–31 · 51.2 -5.5 · 51.5
2026-09-193:00 PM Eastern Illinois @ Illinois State Normal, IL FCS ILST to winILST 97% 14–45 · 58.6 — no line
2026-09-193:00 PM Central Connecticut @ Montana State Bozeman, MT FCS MTST to winMTST 98% 14–48 · 61.7 — no line
2026-09-193:00 PM Pennsylvania @ Bucknell Lewisburg, PA FCS PENN to winPENN 66% 30–24 · 54.5 — no line
2026-09-193:30 PM ● Florida State @ Alabama Tuscaloosa, AL FBS ALA -20.5Over 49.5ALA to winALA 89% 14–36 · 50.7 -20.5 · 49.5
2026-09-193:30 PM ● Kentucky @ Texas A&M College Station, TX FBS TA&M -15.5Over 49.5TA&M to winTA&M 88% 18–36 · 53.7 -15.5 · 49.5
2026-09-193:30 PM ● Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati Cincinnati, OH FBS M-OH +14.5Under 50.5CIN to winCIN 80% 21–30 · 50.3 -14.5 · 50.5
2026-09-193:30 PM ● Utah State @ Utah Salt Lake City, UT FBS USU +28.5Under 56.5UTAH to winUTAH 93% 15–40 · 55.0 -28.5 · 56.5
2026-09-193:30 PM ● SMU @ Louisville Louisville, KY FBS SMU +2Under 59.5SMU to winSMU 57% 31–24 · 55.5 -2.0 · 59.5
2026-09-193:30 PM Wagner @ California Berkeley, CA FCS FBS CAL to winCAL 98% 10–44 · 54.0 — no line
2026-09-193:30 PM ● UTEP @ Michigan Ann Arbor, MI FBS UTEP +36.5Under 49.5MICH to winMICH 94% 13–36 · 48.5 -36.5 · 49.5
2026-09-193:30 PM ● USC @ Rutgers Piscataway, NJ FBS USC -24.5Under 57.5USC to winUSC 92% 42–13 · 54.9 +24.5 · 57.5
2026-09-193:30 PM Duquesne @ Washington State Pullman, WA FCS FBS WSU to winWSU 99% 7–42 · 49.7 — no line
2026-09-193:30 PM Stonehill @ Massachusetts Amherst, MA FCS FBS MASS to winMASS 94% 12–37 · 49.1 — no line
2026-09-193:30 PM Monmouth @ UAlbany Albany, NY FCS UALB to winUALB 59% 27–30 · 57.1 — no line
2026-09-193:30 PM Georgetown @ Richmond Richmond, VA FCS RICH to winRICH 87% 18–36 · 54.9 — no line
2026-09-194:00 PM ● Stanford @ Duke Durham, NC FBS DUKE -9.5Over 51.5DUKE to winDUKE 88% 19–34 · 53.1 -9.5 · 51.5
2026-09-194:00 PM ● Western Kentucky @ Indiana Bloomington, IN FBS WKU +44.5Under 59.5IU to winIU 99% 12–45 · 57.2 -44.5 · 59.5
2026-09-194:00 PM Northern Iowa @ Iowa Iowa City, IA FCS FBS IOWA to winIOWA 99% 6–44 · 50.0 — no line
2026-09-194:00 PM Ball State @ Liberty Lynchburg, VA FBS BALL +14.5LIB to winLIB 58% 23–28 · 50.3 -14.5
2026-09-194:00 PM Hampton @ Norfolk State Norfolk, VA FCS NORF to winNORF 88% 18–37 · 55.3 — no line
2026-09-194:00 PM ● Louisiana Tech @ Baylor Waco, TX FBS Under 54.5BAY to winBAY 83% 18–36 · 54.3 —
2026-09-194:00 PM Abilene Christian @ Idaho Moscow, ID FCS ACU to winACU 50% 28–28 · 55.3 — no line
2026-09-194:00 PM Virginia Lynchburg @ Bethune-Cookman Daytona Beach, FL NON-D1 FCS BCU to winBCU 99% 13–52 · 65.2 — no line
2026-09-194:15 PM ● Mississippi State @ South Carolina Columbia, SC FBS MSST +3.5Under 58.5MSST to winSC 51% 26–28 · 54.2 -3.5 · 58.5
2026-09-194:30 PM SE Louisiana @ UL Monroe Monroe, LA FCS FBS ULM to winULM 86% 18–36 · 53.6 — no line
2026-09-195:00 PM Central State (OH) @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff Pine Bluff, AR NON-D1 FCS UAPB to winUAPB 81% 24–39 · 63.1 — no line
2026-09-196:00 PM East Carolina @ Old Dominion Norfolk, VA FBS ODU -2.5Over 49.5ODU to winODU 52% 24–30 · 54.6 -2.5 · 49.5
2026-09-196:00 PM Florida International @ Florida Atlantic Boca Raton, FL FBS FIU +7Under 62.5FIU to winFIU 54% 31–27 · 57.8 -7.0 · 62.5
2026-09-196:00 PM Charlotte @ App State Boone, NC FBS CLT +20.5Over 50.5APP to winAPP 89% 16–35 · 51.1 -20.5 · 50.5
2026-09-196:00 PM North Carolina A&T @ Campbell Buies Creek, NC FCS CAM to winCAM 92% 17–40 · 57.2 — no line
2026-09-196:00 PM Sacred Heart @ Elon Elon, NC FCS ELON to winELON 88% 15–34 · 48.7 — no line
2026-09-196:00 PM Morgan State @ Towson Towson, MD FCS TOW to winTOW 59% 24–28 · 51.8 — no line
2026-09-196:00 PM North Carolina Central @ Gardner-Webb Boiling Springs, NC FCS GWEB to winGWEB 72% 24–33 · 56.9 — no line
2026-09-196:00 PM Fordham @ William & Mary Williamsburg, VA FCS W&M to winW&M 84% 18–34 · 53.0 — no line
2026-09-196:00 PM Dayton @ Eastern Kentucky Richmond, KY FCS DAY to winDAY 69% 29–21 · 49.6 — no line
2026-09-196:00 PM Point University @ Charleston Southern Charleston, SC NON-D1 FCS POIN to winPOIN 72% 28–19 · 47.0 — no line
2026-09-196:00 PM Wofford @ Chattanooga Chattanooga, TN FCS WOF to winWOF 55% 23–21 · 44.7 — no line
2026-09-196:30 PM Marshall @ Missouri State Springfield, MO FBS Over 51.5MOST to winMRSH 58% 29–25 · 53.7 —
2026-09-197:00 PM ● Florida @ Auburn Auburn, AL FBS AUB +2.5Under 53.5AUB to winFLA 58% 25–24 · 48.7 +2.5 · 53.5
2026-09-197:00 PM ● Troy @ Missouri Columbia, MO FBS TROY +27.5Over 49.5MIZ to winMIZ 88% 15–35 · 49.6 -27.5 · 49.5
2026-09-197:00 PM ● Georgia State @ UCF Orlando, FL FBS GAST +20.5Under 50.5UCF to winUCF 79% 16–32 · 47.7 -20.5 · 50.5
2026-09-197:00 PM Murray State @ Oklahoma State Stillwater, OK FCS FBS OKST to winOKST 99% 7–44 · 51.5 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM UConn @ Southern Miss Hattiesburg, MS FBS USM +3.5Over 54.5USM to winUSM 57% 24–32 · 55.4 +3.5 · 54.5
2026-09-197:00 PM UT Martin @ Memphis Memphis, TN FCS FBS MEM to winMEM 98% 11–43 · 54.5 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Western Michigan @ Rice Houston, TX FBS WMU -12Over 44.5WMU to winWMU 77% 30–17 · 46.3 +12.0 · 44.5
2026-09-197:00 PM Delaware State @ South Florida Tampa, FL FCS FBS USF to winUSF 99% 8–45 · 53.5 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Nevada @ Middle Tennessee Murfreesboro, TN FBS Over 50.5NEV to winNEV 64% 26–24 · 50.8 —
2026-09-197:00 PM Ohio @ South Alabama Mobile, AL FBS OHIO +4.5Under 53.5USA to winUSA 59% 24–28 · 52.1 -4.5 · 53.5
2026-09-197:00 PM Youngstown State @ South Dakota State Brookings, SD FCS SDST to winSDST 61% 31–35 · 66.0 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM South Carolina State @ Furman Greenville, SC FCS SCST to winSCST 55% 29–27 · 55.6 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Austin Peay @ West Florida Pensacola, FL FCS NON-D1 WEST to winWEST 53% 28–29 · 56.7 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Central Arkansas @ Southeast Missouri State Cape Girardeau, MO FCS CARK to winCARK 56% 30–28 · 58.4 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Alcorn State @ North Alabama Florence, AL FCS UNA to winUNA 75% 24–35 · 59.7 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Tennessee State @ Florida A&M Tallahassee, FL FCS FAMU to winFAMU 69% 20–28 · 49.0 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Morehead State @ Western Illinois Macomb, IL FCS WIU to winWIU 69% 28–37 · 65.1 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Merrimack @ Tarleton State Stephenville, TX FCS TAR to winTAR 96% 12–41 · 53.5 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Bowie State @ Alabama A&M Huntsville, AL NON-D1 FCS AAMU to winAAMU 54% 26–28 · 53.6 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Tuskegee @ Jackson State Jackson, MS NON-D1 FCS JKST to winJKST 98% 13–48 · 60.7 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Delta State @ Mississippi Valley State Itta Bena, MS NON-D1 FCS DELT to winDELT 94% 40–15 · 55.8 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Louisiana Christian @ Southern Baton Rouge, LA NON-D1 FCS SOU to winSOU 65% 29–35 · 63.9 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word San Antonio, TX FCS UIW to winUIW 89% 20–40 · 60.1 — no line
2026-09-197:00 PM Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State Jacksonville, AL FBS GASO +3.5Under 53.5JXST to winJXST 52% 24–28 · 52.4 -3.5 · 53.5
2026-09-197:00 PM Nicholls @ Sam Houston Huntsville, TX FCS FBS SHSU to winSHSU 79% 21–34 · 54.1 — no line
2026-09-197:15 PM North Dakota @ Nebraska Lincoln, NE FCS FBS NEB to winNEB 88% 23–42 · 65.2 — no line
2026-09-197:15 PM Eastern Washington @ Washington Seattle, WA FCS FBS WASH to winWASH 98% 10–44 · 53.7 — no line
2026-09-197:30 PM ● LSU @ Ole Miss Oxford, MS FBS MISS +3Under 58.5LSU to winMISS 51% 27–28 · 55.0 +3.0 · 58.5
2026-09-197:30 PM ● New Mexico @ Oklahoma Norman, OK FBS Over 48.5OU to winOU 80% 18–30 · 49.0 —
2026-09-197:30 PM ● BYU @ Colorado State Fort Collins, CO FBS CSU +19.5Under 52.5BYU to winBYU 84% 34–15 · 49.1 +19.5 · 52.5
2026-09-197:30 PM ● Colorado @ Northwestern Evanston, IL FBS NU -3.5Over 47.5NU to winNU 60% 20–28 · 47.6 -3.5 · 47.5
2026-09-197:30 PM ● West Virginia @ Virginia Charlotte, NC · neutral FBS UVA -10Under 54.5UVA to winUVA 76% 20–32 · 51.4 -10.0 · 54.5
2026-09-197:30 PM ● Virginia Tech @ Maryland College Park, MD FBS MD +3.5Under 53.5MD to winMD 58% 24–28 · 52.8 +3.5 · 53.5
2026-09-197:30 PM ● Michigan State @ Notre Dame Notre Dame, IN FBS MSU +30Under 52.5ND to winND 91% 14–38 · 51.8 -30.0 · 52.5
2026-09-197:45 PM ● Kennesaw State @ Tennessee Knoxville, TN FBS KENN +35.5Under 60.5TENN to winTENN 96% 12–44 · 56.6 -35.5 · 60.5
2026-09-198:00 PM ● UTSA @ Texas Austin, TX FBS Under 58.5TEX to winTEX 78% 20–36 · 56.0 —
2026-09-198:00 PM ● Arkansas State @ TCU Fort Worth, TX FBS ARST +20.5Under 56.5TCU to winTCU 82% 19–33 · 52.0 -20.5 · 56.5
2026-09-198:00 PM East Texas A&M @ Tulsa Tulsa, OK FCS FBS TLSA to winTLSA 95% 13–39 · 52.1 — no line
2026-09-198:00 PM UAB @ Louisiana Lafayette, LA FBS UL -9.5Under 56.5UL to winUL 79% 22–34 · 55.5 -9.5 · 56.5
2026-09-198:00 PM San Diego @ Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, CA FCS CP to winCP 77% 24–36 · 59.5 — no line
2026-09-198:00 PM Northern Arizona @ Utah Tech Saint George, UT FCS NAU to winNAU 73% 33–23 · 56.2 — no line
2026-09-198:00 PM Northeastern State @ Northern Colorado Greeley, CO NON-D1 FCS UNCO to winUNCO 65% 24–30 · 54.5 — no line
2026-09-198:00 PM Northwestern State @ Weber State Ogden, UT FCS WEB to winWEB 94% 21–46 · 67.0 — no line
2026-09-198:00 PM McNeese @ UT Rio Grande Valley Edinburg, TX FCS UT R to winUT R 70% 23–32 · 55.0 — no line
2026-09-198:00 PM Stephen F. Austin @ Prairie View A&M Prairie View, TX FCS SFA to winSFA 87% 37–19 · 56.4 — no line
2026-09-1910:00 PM South Dakota @ Boise State Boise, ID FCS FBS BOIS to winBOIS 93% 18–42 · 59.3 — no line
2026-09-1910:00 PM James Madison @ San Diego State San Diego, CA FBS JMU +1.5Over 46.5JMU to winJMU 51% 24–24 · 48.7 -1.5 · 46.5
2026-09-1910:00 PM Stetson @ UC Davis Davis, CA FCS UCD to winUCD 98% 14–47 · 60.9 — no line
2026-09-1910:30 PM ● Northern Illinois @ Arizona Tucson, AZ FBS NIU +34.5ARIZ to winARIZ 94% 12–37 · 48.4 -34.5
2026-09-1910:30 PM North Dakota State @ Sacramento State Sacramento, CA FCS SAC +27.5Over 53.5NDSU to winNDSU 92% 40–17 · 57.1 +27.5 · 53.5
2026-09-1911:00 PM ● Purdue @ UCLA Pasadena, CA FBS UCLA -16.5Under 52.5UCLA to winUCLA 77% 17–35 · 52.0 -16.5 · 52.5
2026-09-1911:00 PM Montana @ Oregon State Corvallis, OR FCS FBS ORST to winORST 75% 22–33 · 54.4 — no line
2026-09-1911:00 PM Fresno State @ San José State San Jose, CA FBS FRES -7Over 50.5FRES to winFRES 61% 31–20 · 51.0 +7.0 · 50.5

Every row links to its full breakdown.