Our side
MoneylineDAY to win
ours 33%
Projected score
29–21
DAY – EKU
2026-09-19 · 6:00 PM
Roy Kidd Stadium · Richmond, KY
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Dayton and Eastern Kentucky split 4 (2–2)
· 4 meetings since 1967
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
9 ranks apart
Dayton Flyers #191 rush offense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #182 run defense
Pass game
even
40 ranks apart
Dayton Flyers #14 pass offense
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #54 pass defense
Run game
edge Dayton Flyers
179 ranks
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #192 rush offense
Dayton Flyers #13 run defense
Pass game
edge Dayton Flyers
181 ranks
Eastern Kentucky Colonels #253 pass offense
Dayton Flyers #72 pass defense
Dayton Flyers
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Run-heavy · 64% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Dayton Flyers
TE
Donovan Weatherly
8 rec · 110 yds · 2 TD
#19 TE
DB
Javawn Brooks
7 tkl · 3 INT
#210 DB
DL
Jace Schaefer
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#313 DL
DL
Griffin Suren
4 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#352 DL
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
LB
Cam Jessee
23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#42 LB
DB
Derek Taylor
24 tkl
#137 DB
RB
Brady Hensley
225 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#62 RB
DB
Jeffrey Kinley
19 tkl · 1 PD
#266 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Dayton offense vs Eastern Kentucky defense-0.9 pts
Eastern Kentucky offense vs Dayton defense-11.6 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.