BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

4 days to next game
2026 season 1,625 games scheduled 277 D1 teams (131 FCS)

Top 10 FBS 2026 power · our model · early season · 2 games each full ratings →

  1. 1 Notre Dame +35.6
  2. 2 Ohio State +34.9
  3. 3 Indiana +33.9
  4. 4 Alabama +33.7
  5. 5 Texas A&M +31.6
  6. 6 Utah +30.1
  7. 7 Texas +30.0
  8. 8 Miami +29.0
  9. 9 Penn State +28.5
  10. 10 LSU +27.0
● Top projected winners 76% · 104-32 this season

The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.

Top projected winners ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Pittsburgh
-13.8 · 85%
over Syracuse
-335 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-10.4 · 82%
over Houston
-385 FanDuel
Virginia
-11.5 · 76%
over West Virginia
-350 FanDuel
Arizona State
-5.8 · 62%
over Kansas
-205 DraftKings
North Carolina
-1.6 · 61%
over Clemson
+295 DraftKings
Northwestern
-8.0 · 60%
over Colorado
-148 DraftKings
Maryland
-4.2 · 58%
over Virginia Tech
+140 ESPN Bet
Florida
-1.7 · 58%
over Auburn
-135 DraftKings
Top spread reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence
Ole Miss
+2.5
we differ by 2.7 pts
-105 DraftKings
Alabama
-18.5
we differ by 3.5 pts
best -17.5 -105 DraftKings
Wake Forest
+22.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-108 FanDuel
Auburn
+2.5
we differ by 0.8 pts
-102 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-9.5
we differ by 0.9 pts
-110 DraftKings
Mississippi State
+4.5
we differ by 2.3 pts
best +5.5 -105 DraftKings
Vanderbilt
-5.5
we differ by 4.0 pts
Arkansas
+23.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-110 FanDuel
Top total reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line
Under 58.5
-3.5 pts
LSU @ MISS · ours 55.0
-108 DraftKings
Over 50.5
+0.2 pts
FSU @ ALA · ours 50.7
-110 BetMGM
Over 48.5
+5.2 pts
UK @ TA&M · ours 53.7
-102 DraftKings
Under 55.5
-3.4 pts
MIA @ WAKE · ours 52.1
-110 FanDuel
Over 52.5
+2.1 pts
HOU @ TTU · ours 54.6
best 51.5 -110 DraftKings
Under 58.5
-4.3 pts
MSST @ SC · ours 54.2
-110 ESPN Bet
Over 52.5
+1.0 pts
NCSU @ VAN · ours 53.5
Over 53.5
+3.0 pts
UGA @ ARK · ours 56.5
best 52.5 -108 DraftKings
Top team totals our projected score against the book’s team total · 0 games priced this week

No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.

Next Up from 2026-09-17 all matchups →

The matchups worth leading with — FBS and power-conference games first, then by combined power rating. A plain date sort buries the games with actual betting action. The number beside each school is its rank in our power ratings, within its own division.