On the board
41 priced of 128
Median gap
4.2
Straight up
104–32
Model state
EARLY SEASON
● Top projected winners
76% · 104-32 this season
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
Top projected winners
ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Pittsburgh
-13.8 · 85%
over Syracuse
-335 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-10.4 · 82%
over Houston
-385 FanDuel
Virginia
-11.5 · 76%
over West Virginia
-350 FanDuel
Arizona State
-5.8 · 62%
over Kansas
-205 DraftKings
North Carolina
-1.6 · 61%
over Clemson
+295 DraftKings
Northwestern
-8.0 · 60%
over Colorado
-148 DraftKings
Maryland
-4.2 · 58%
over Virginia Tech
+140 ESPN Bet
Florida
-1.7 · 58%
over Auburn
-135 DraftKings
Top spread reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence
Ole Miss
+2.5
we differ by 2.7 pts
-105 DraftKings
Alabama
-18.5
we differ by 3.5 pts
best -17.5 -105 DraftKings
Wake Forest
+22.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-108 FanDuel
Auburn
+2.5
we differ by 0.8 pts
-102 FanDuel
Texas Tech
-9.5
we differ by 0.9 pts
-110 DraftKings
Mississippi State
+4.5
we differ by 2.3 pts
best +5.5 -105 DraftKings
Vanderbilt
-5.5
we differ by 4.0 pts
Arkansas
+23.5
we differ by 5.5 pts
-110 FanDuel
Top total reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line
Under 58.5
-3.5 pts
LSU @ MISS · ours 55.0
-108 DraftKings
Over 50.5
+0.2 pts
FSU @ ALA · ours 50.7
-110 BetMGM
Over 48.5
+5.2 pts
UK @ TA&M · ours 53.7
-102 DraftKings
Under 55.5
-3.4 pts
MIA @ WAKE · ours 52.1
-110 FanDuel
Over 52.5
+2.1 pts
HOU @ TTU · ours 54.6
best 51.5 -110 DraftKings
Under 58.5
-4.3 pts
MSST @ SC · ours 54.2
-110 ESPN Bet
Over 52.5
+1.0 pts
NCSU @ VAN · ours 53.5
Over 53.5
+3.0 pts
UGA @ ARK · ours 56.5
best 52.5 -108 DraftKings
Top team totals
our projected score against the book’s team total · 0 games priced this week
No book has posted a team total on this slate yet.
What the colors mean state · side · price · outcome
State
In play · its own hue, never an outcome
To play Played
Prediction — which side
The side we logged, edged in that team’s own color
Identity only. It names the side; it does not say the side is good.
Value — the price
◆One book’s number beats the field, in POINTS
3 games today
Tap the book or the total to put that side on the slip at that price.
Points first, price second — half a point is worth far more than a few cents of juice.
ncaaf_line_shopping.py: +0.86% win rate, +1.61% ROI over 8,652 graded bets. The only edge this site has measured,
and the only thing on this page with a right answer.
Outcome
ATS WTOT LML ·
Graded games only. Nothing in play is ever green or red.
How reliable has each gap band been?
ncaaf_edge_audit.py · 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0-3 pts
52.0% n=4,250
3-7
50.2% n=3,651
7-14
49.3% n=2,173
14+
46.8% n=666
17+ wide
p90 — tagged, never ranked up
Read the ramp the way it is drawn: bright means we AGREE with the market. Every band above is under the 52.4% break-even and the rate falls as our disagreement grows, so a big gap is this model’s worst bucket rather than a buy signal. That is why the disagreement column is drawn in neutral ink instead of a hot-to-cold scale, why nothing here is sorted by it, and why the value color is attached to the price rather than to the size of our disagreement.
| Kickoff | Matchup | Score | Our number | The book | Disagreement ← awaybookhome → | Side we logged | Best line — and by how much | Total | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To play41 kickoff order · 87 further games carry no line and are not on this sheet | |||||||||
| Thu 7:30 PM |
 SyracuseSYR
at
PittsburghPITT |
— | PITT −13.8 | PITT −9.5 | 4.3 | PITT -9.5 | DK-10.5-112ESPN-9.5-110FD-9.5-110 | 85%our win prob | |
| Fri 7:30 PM |
MiamiMIA
at
Wake ForestWAKE |
— | MIA −17.0 | MIA −22.5 | 5.5 | WAKE +22.5 | MGM+22.5-110DK+22.5-112FD+22.5-108 | 74%our win prob | |
| Fri 8:00 PM |
HoustonHOU
at
Texas TechTTU |
— | TTU −10.4 | TTU −9.5 | 0.9 | TTU -9.5 | DK-9.5-110ESPN-10.5-105FD-9.5-115 | 82%our win prob | |
| Sat 11:30 AM |
 Coastal CarolinaCCU
at
 DelawareDEL |
— | DEL −7.6 | DEL −4.5 | 3.1 | DEL -4.5 | 63%our win prob | ||
| Sat 12:00 PM |
GeorgiaUGA
at
ArkansasARK |
— | UGA −18.0 | UGA −23.5 | 5.5 | ARK +23.5 | DK+17.5-110FD+23.5-110 | 75%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
Arizona StateASU
at
 KansasKU |
— | ASU −5.8 | ASU −5.5 | 0.3 | ASU -5.5 | DK-5.5-110ESPN-5.5-110FD-5.5-110 | 62%our win prob | |
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 TulaneTULN
at
 Kansas StateKSU |
— | KSU −20.7 | KSU −19.5 | 1.2 | KSU -19.5 | 80%our win prob | ||
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 Kent StateKENT
at
 Ohio StateOSU |
— | OSU −37.3 | OSU −52.5 | 15.2 | KENT +52.5 | 99%our win prob | ||
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 Bowling GreenBGSU
at
 Iowa StateISU |
— | ISU −22.6 | ISU −23.5 | 0.9 | BGSU +23.5 | 94%our win prob | ||
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 AkronAKR
at
 MinnesotaMINN |
— | MINN −6.0 | MINN −27.5 | 21.5wide | AKR +27.5 | 65%our win prob | ||
| Sat 12:00 PM |
 North TexasUNT
at
 Texas StateTXST |
— | UNT −1.1 | TXST −3.5 | 4.6 | UNT +3.5 | 69%our win prob | ||
| Sat 12:30 PM |
 Eastern MichiganEMU
at
 WisconsinWIS |
— | WIS −16.9 | WIS −24.5 | 7.6 | EMU +24.5 | 86%our win prob | ||
| Sat 12:45 PM |
NC StateNCSU
at
VanderbiltVAN |
— | VAN −9.5 | VAN −5.5 | 4.0 | VAN -5.5 | 73%our win prob | ||
| Sat 1:00 PM |
 WyomingWYO
at
 Central MichiganCMU |
— | CMU −0.2 | CMU −1.5 | 1.3 | WYO +1.5 | 55%our win prob | ||
| Sat 3:00 PM |
 TempleTEM
at
 ToledoTOL |
— | TOL −10.0 | TOL −3.5 | 6.5 | TOL -3.5 | 69%our win prob | ||
| Sat 3:30 PM |
Florida StateFSU
at
AlabamaALA |
— | ALA −22.0 | ALA −18.5 | 3.5 | ALA -18.5 | MGM-18-108DK-17.5-105ESPN-18.5-110FD-18.5-110 | 89%our win prob | |
| Sat 3:30 PM |
 USCUSC
at
 RutgersRUTG |
— | USC −29.4 | USC −25.5 | 3.9 | USC -25.5 | 92%our win prob | ||
| Sat 3:30 PM |
 Utah StateUSU
at
 UtahUTAH |
— | UTAH −24.6 | UTAH −28.5 | 3.9 | USU +28.5 | 93%our win prob | ||
| Sat 3:30 PM |
 Miami (OH)M-OH
at
 CincinnatiCIN |
— | CIN −9.2 | CIN −14.5 | 5.3 | M-OH +14.5 | 80%our win prob | ||
| Sat 3:30 PM |
 UTEPUTEP
at
 MichiganMICH |
— | MICH −22.5 | MICH −35.5 | 13.0 | UTEP +35.5 | 94%our win prob | ||
| Sat 4:00 PM |
 StanfordSTAN
at
 DukeDUKE |
— | DUKE −15.0 | DUKE −9.5 | 5.5 | DUKE -9.5 | 88%our win prob | ||
| Sat 4:00 PM |
 Western KentuckyWKU
at
 IndianaIU |
— | IU −33.2 | IU −44.5 | 11.3 | WKU +44.5 | 99%our win prob | ||
| Sat 4:00 PM |
 Louisiana TechLT
at
 BaylorBAY |
— | BAY −17.8 | BAY −18.5 | 0.7 | LT +18.5 | 83%our win prob | ||
| Sat 4:00 PM |
 Ball StateBALL
at
 LibertyLIB |
— | LIB −5.0 | LIB −14.5 | 9.5 | BALL +14.5 | 58%our win prob | ||
| Sat 4:15 PM |
Mississippi StateMSST
at
South CarolinaSC |
— | SC −2.2 | SC −4.5 | 2.3 | MSST +4.5 | DK+5.5-105ESPN+4.5-110FD+4.5-110 | 51%our win prob | |
| Sat 6:00 PM |
 Florida InternationalFIU
at
 Florida AtlanticFAU |
— | FIU −3.5 | FAU −7.5 | 11.0 | FIU +7.5 | 54%our win prob | ||
| Sat 7:00 PM |
FloridaFLA
at
AuburnAUB |
— | FLA −1.7 | FLA −2.5 | 0.8 | AUB +2.5 | DK+2.5-110FD+2.5-102 | — | 58%our win prob |
| Sat 7:00 PM |
 Georgia StateGAST
at
 UCFUCF |
— | UCF −16.4 | UCF −20.5 | 4.1 | GAST +20.5 | 79%our win prob | ||
| Sat 7:00 PM |
 Western MichiganWMU
at
 RiceRICE |
— | WMU −12.9 | WMU −10.5 | 2.4 | WMU -10.5 | 77%our win prob | ||
| Sat 7:30 PM |
LSULSU
at
Ole MissMISS |
— | MISS −0.2 | LSU −2.5 | 2.7 | MISS +2.5 | MGM+2.5-108DK+2.5-105ESPN+2.5-110FD+2.5-110 | 51%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 West VirginiaWVU
at
VirginiaUVA |
— | UVA −11.5 | UVA −9.5 | 2.0 | UVA -9.5 | DK-9.5-110FD-9.5-114 | — | 76%our win prob |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 Virginia TechVT
at
MarylandMD |
— | MD −4.2 | VT −3.5 | 7.7 | MD +3.5 | DK+3-108ESPN+3.5-110FD+3.5-110 | 58%our win prob | |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 Michigan StateMSU
at
 Notre DameND |
— | ND −24.0 | ND −29.5 | 5.5 | MSU +29.5 | MGM+29.5-110DK+29.5-115ESPN+29.5-110FD+29.5-105 | — | 91%our win prob |
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 New MexicoUNM
at
 OklahomaOU |
— | OU −11.9 | OU −20.5 | 8.6 | UNM +20.5 | 80%our win prob | ||
| Sat 7:30 PM |
 BYUBYU
at
 Colorado StateCSU |
— | BYU −18.6 | BYU −20.5 | 1.9 | CSU +20.5 | 84%our win prob | ||
| Sat 7:45 PM |
 Kennesaw StateKENN
at
 TennesseeTENN |
— | TENN −31.8 | TENN −35.5 | 3.7 | KENN +35.5 | 96%our win prob | ||
| Sat 8:00 PM |
 Arkansas StateARST
at
 TCUTCU |
— | TCU −14.6 | TCU −20.5 | 5.9 | ARST +20.5 | 82%our win prob | ||
| Sat 8:00 PM |
 UABUAB
at
 LouisianaUL |
— | UL −12.2 | UL −8.5 | 3.7 | UL -8.5 | 79%our win prob | ||
| Sat 10:30 PM |
 Northern IllinoisNIU
at
 ArizonaARIZ |
— | ARIZ −25.1 | ARIZ −35.5 | 10.4 | NIU +35.5 | 94%our win prob | ||
| Sat 11:00 PM |
 PurduePUR
at
 UCLAUCLA |
— | UCLA −17.8 | UCLA −13.5 | 4.3 | UCLA -13.5 | 77%our win prob | ||
| Sat 11:00 PM |
 Fresno StateFRES
at
 San José StateSJSU |
— | FRES −11.7 | FRES −7.5 | 4.2 | FRES -7.5 | 61%our win prob | ||
Every bar puts the book at the center and our number beside it, to one scale for every game. A wide gap is a caution, not a signal — measured over 10,740 graded games, the further we sit from the market the worse we have done (52.0% ATS where we barely disagree, 46.8% where we disagree by 14+ points). Naming a side is orientation, not a recommendation: this project measured no edge on spreads or totals over 10,777 games. The best-number column is a price, never a pick — whatever side you were going to take, it says who has the best number on it.
Every row links to its full breakdown. The books grid, the public splits and the bet slip live on Panels and on each game’s own page.