BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Temple

AAC · 1-1 · power +8.3 · #92
Our side · spreadTOL -3.5 our number TOL -10.0 · 6.5 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected +2.0 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Toledo

MAC · 1-1 · power +14.5 · #57
Our side
SpreadTOL -3.5 ours TOL -10.0
TotalUnder 51.5 ours 51.2
MoneylineTOL to win ours 67% · book 59%
Distance from the market 6.5 pts / -0.3 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 21–31 TEM – TOL
2026-09-19 · 3:00 PM Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book TEM spreadTOL spread OverUnder TEM winTOL win TEM TT overTEM TT under TOL TT overTOL TT under
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadToledo -10.0
the marketToledo -3.5
Total51.2
the market51.5
Toledo win67% vs 59%

Both percentages are Toledo’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series Toledo lead 7–3 · 10 meetings since 1962
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Toledo Rockets 126 ranks
Temple Owls #149 rush offense Toledo Rockets #23 run defense
Pass game edge Toledo Rockets 55 ranks
Temple Owls #59 pass offense Toledo Rockets #4 pass defense
Run game edge Toledo Rockets 165 ranks
Toledo Rockets #70 rush offense Temple Owls #235 run defense
Pass game edge Toledo Rockets 169 ranks
Toledo Rockets #66 pass offense Temple Owls #235 pass defense
Temple Owls Balanced · 57% run Ball-control Toledo Rockets Balanced · 55% run Ball-control
K.C. Keeler · 17-19 · offense-minded Robert Weiner · 0-1

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Temple Owls
RB Keveun Mason 234 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #24 RB
DB Jamarcus Pierre 3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #107 DB
LB Curly Ordonez 20 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #68 LB
LB Tyree Alualu 5 tkl #81 LB
Toledo Rockets
LB Isaac Zay 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #14 LB
DL Andrew Zock 9 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #68 DL
WR Adjatay Dabbs 8 rec · 135 yds · 3 TD #59 WR
RB Connor Walendzak 110 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec #67 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Temple OwlsAAC +8.3 +3.6 +4.7 #92
Toledo RocketsMAC +14.5 +6.8 +7.6 #57

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Temple offense vs Toledo defense-4.0 pts
Toledo offense vs Temple defense+2.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 458 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.