How have we done?
229–149 decided this season · every pick graded in public power-l2-v8
Previous generation power-l2-v7 0–1 — stopped taking new picks 2026-09-06. Previous generation power-l2-v6 131–87 — stopped taking new picks 2026-09-06. Previous generation power-l2-v5 4–1 — stopped taking new picks 2026-09-05. Previous generation power-l2-v3 122–107 — stopped taking new picks 2026-09-05. Generations are shown one at a time and never added together.
| Market | W–L | Hit rate | One-line rule to beat | Push | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (straight up) | 104–32 | 76.5% | 78–10 always back the book's favoriteon the 88 picks that also carry a spread — we went 73–15 on those | 0 | 0 |
| Against the spread | 45–43 | 51.1% | 44.3% always take the underdog | 0 | 0 |
| Totals (over/under) | 45–42 | 51.7% | — | 0 | 0 |
| Team totals | 35–32 | 52.2% | — | 0 | 0 |
| All markets | 229–149 | 60.6% | — | 0 | 0 |
Read the moneyline row with its price count. Of its 136 decided picks, 72 carried a price a book actually posted — those went 57–15. The other 64 are games no book quoted, almost all FCS-vs-FCS. They are in the record on purpose: the moneyline is the only market that grades without a line, and dropping unpriced games would leave permanent holes in the season rather than an honest number. But a straight-up hit rate built mostly on unquoted games is not a betting result, and this page should not let it read like one.
Read the team-total row as what it is: 43 games, not 67 measurements. Its 67 decided picks span 43 games — both sides of the same game are one event, not two, and 26 of the 67 are overs. A hit rate on that base is a week’s weather, not a climate: one Saturday swinging the other way flips the percentage entirely. The market is live and graded like the others; the sample is not yet a record.
Hit rate counts decided picks only. A push (exactly on the number) is neither a win nor a loss, so it is shown separately. Withdrawn picks — a game that was not played, or a line no book ever posted — are excluded from these counts entirely rather than shown. Pending is a game that hasn’t been played; it is not a loss either. The pick itself — side, line and price — is written to an append-only log before kickoff and is never edited afterwards. Its result can be corrected: if the game record a pick was graded against later changes, the grader re-checks it and says so.
The receipts last 25 graded
| Date | Game | Market | Pick | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 |  Arkansas
@ Utah |
team_total_away | Arkansas Over 20.5 | 10–43 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | Arkansas
@Utah |
team_total_home | Utah Under 34.5 | 10–43 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | Arkansas
@Utah |
total | Under 55.5 | 10–43 | win |
| 2026-09-12 |  Texas Tech
@ Oregon State |
team_total_away | Texas Tech Over 40.5 | 35–24 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 |  Montana State
@ Nevada |
total | Over 49.5 | 20–7 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | Arkansas
@Utah |
spread | Utah -12.5 | 10–43 | win |
| 2026-09-12 |  New Mexico State
@ Hawai'i |
team_total_home | Hawai'i Under 30.5 | 19–29 | win |
| 2026-09-12 |  Louisiana
@ USC |
team_total_away | Louisiana Under 14.5 | 30–49 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | Louisiana
@USC |
team_total_home | USC Under 44.5 | 30–49 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 |  Texas Southern
@ UTEP |
total | Over 53.5 | 10–51 | win |
| 2026-09-12 | Texas Southern
@UTEP |
spread | Texas Southern +26.5 | 10–51 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | Texas Southern
@UTEP |
moneyline | UTEP straight up | 10–51 | win |
| 2026-09-12 |  North Dakota
@ Portland State |
moneyline | North Dakota straight up | 47–23 | win |
| 2026-09-12 | Montana State
@Nevada |
spread | Nevada +4.5 | 20–7 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | Montana State
@Nevada |
moneyline | Nevada straight up | 20–7 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 |  North Dakota State
@ Air Force |
total | Over 47.5 | 38–32 | win |
| 2026-09-12 | North Dakota State
@Air Force |
spread | Air Force +2.5 | 38–32 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | North Dakota State
@Air Force |
moneyline | Air Force straight up | 38–32 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 |  Sacramento State
@ Fresno State |
total | Under 45.5 | 3–49 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | Sacramento State
@Fresno State |
spread | Fresno State -18.5 | 3–49 | win |
| 2026-09-12 | Sacramento State
@Fresno State |
moneyline | Fresno State straight up | 3–49 | win |
| 2026-09-12 | Arkansas
@Utah |
moneyline | Utah straight up | 10–43 | win |
| 2026-09-12 | New Mexico State
@Hawai'i |
total | Under 49.5 | 19–29 | win |
| 2026-09-12 | New Mexico State
@Hawai'i |
spread | New Mexico State +7 | 19–29 | loss |
| 2026-09-12 | New Mexico State
@Hawai'i |
moneyline | Hawai'i straight up | 19–29 | win |
What has money on it?
The Key-3 card · one measured rule · dogs getting 2.5–4
Ten seasons of college football margins say the books’ half-point pricing around 3 overcharges favorites — since the 2021 overtime rule, favorites laying 2.5–4 have covered 46% while being priced above 50%. This card lists every game where the dog’s price beats that measured fair number at a book you can actually bet, logged immutably the moment it qualified. Flat ¼–½ unit per pick, hard cap — the edge is one or two points of cover rate, not a bragging number.
| Date | Game | The bet | Price · book | Fair | Result | Logged (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 |  Florida
@ Auburn |
Auburn +2.5 | -105 draftkings | open | 2026-09-10 22:01:53 | |
| 2026-09-19 |  LSU
@ Ole Miss |
Ole Miss +3 | -108 draftkings | open | 2026-09-10 20:02:29 | |
| 2026-09-19 |  Colorado
@ Northwestern |
Colorado +3.5 | -110 fanduel | open | 2026-09-11 20:03:02 | |
| 2026-08-29 | Hawai'i
@ Stanford |
Hawai'i +4 | -110 draftkings | loss 27–37 | 2026-08-29 04:49:13 | |
| 2026-08-29 |  NC State
@ Virginia |
NC State +4 | -110 betmgm | loss 8–34 | 2026-08-29 04:49:13 | |
| 2026-08-29 |  Memphis
@ UNLV |
Memphis +4 | -105 betmgm | win 27–21 | 2026-08-29 04:49:13 | |
| 2026-09-04 |  San José State
@ Eastern Michigan |
San José State +3.5 | -108 draftkings | win 27–21 | 2026-08-30 22:01:06 | |
| 2026-09-05 |  UCLA
@ California |
California +2.5 | -102 caesars | loss 45–24 | 2026-09-05 00:39:36 | |
| 2026-09-05 |  Wyoming
@ Colorado State |
Wyoming +3 | -102 draftkings | loss 13–35 | 2026-08-30 22:01:06 | |
| 2026-09-05 |  Western Kentucky
@Nevada |
Nevada +2.5 | -105 caesars | win 14–49 | 2026-08-29 04:49:14 | |
| 2026-09-05 | UNLV
@Hawai'i |
Hawai'i +3 | -108 caesars | loss 21–6 | 2026-08-30 22:01:06 | |
| 2026-09-07 |  SMU
@ Florida State |
Florida State +2.5 | -105 betmgm | loss 27–24 | 2026-08-29 04:49:14 | |
| 2026-09-11 |  Missouri
@ Kansas |
Kansas +4 | -105 draftkings | loss 38–21 | 2026-09-11 22:02:04 | |
| 2026-09-11 |  Rutgers
@ Boston College |
Rutgers +3.5 | -108 draftkings | loss 21–28 | 2026-09-06 22:01:01 | |
| 2026-09-12 | California
@ Syracuse |
California +3 | -105 betmgm | win 21–18 | 2026-09-06 22:01:01 | |
| 2026-09-12 |  Wake Forest
@ Purdue |
Purdue +2.5 | +100 espnbet | win 38–36 | 2026-09-08 20:01:24 | |
| 2026-09-12 |  UTSA
@ Texas State |
UTSA +2.5 | -105 draftkings | win 31–26 | 2026-09-12 15:02:16 | |
| 2026-09-12 |  South Florida
@ Army |
South Florida +3.5 | -105 espnbet | win 28–24 | 2026-09-06 22:01:01 | |
| 2026-09-12 |  Navy
@ Florida Atlantic |
Florida Atlantic +4 | -108 betmgm | win 30–38 | 2026-09-12 13:00:49 | |
| 2026-09-12 | UNLV
@ North Texas |
North Texas +3.5 | -108 draftkings | win 6–44 | 2026-09-08 20:01:24 | |
| 2026-09-12 |  Jacksonville State
@ Ohio |
Jacksonville State +2.5 | +100 espnbet | win 27–29 | 2026-09-08 20:01:24 |
Can we call the line’s move?
The Sunday line-move test · our side at the opener when the model predicts a 1-point move
Nothing we hold beats the closing line. But the line’s move from its Sunday opener to Saturday’s close is predictable from both teams’ season efficiency: walk-forward 2022–25 the direction was right 60% of the time when the model called a move of a point or more, and taking that side at the opener covered 54.6% — with one losing season in four. Break-even is 52.4%. This is a forward test, logged at the opener, never re-picked, graded here beside everything else. Two numbers count: did the closing line move our way, and did the pick cover.
| Date | Game | The bet | Price | Predicted move | Close | Line moved | Result | Logged (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 |  Southern Miss
@Auburn |
Southern Miss +29.5 agree | -110 median of 3 books | +3.4 | -32.5 | -3.0 | loss 8–43 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Charlotte
@Ole Miss |
Charlotte +47.5 | -108 median of 5 books | +1.4 | -44.5 | +3.0 | win 9–41 | 2026-09-08 20:01:22 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Ohio State
@ Texas |
Ohio State +1.5 agree | -112 median of 1 books | +1.4 | -2.0 | -0.5 | win 23–24 | 2026-09-06 14:01:00 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Delaware
@ Vanderbilt |
Delaware +20.5 | -107 median of 4 books | +1.3 | — | — | win 26–35 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Iowa State
@ Iowa |
Iowa State +14.5 agree | -108 median of 4 books | +1.3 | -14.0 | +0.5 | win 13–16 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  UCF
@ Pittsburgh |
UCF +7.5 | -108 median of 5 books | +1.3 | -7.0 | +0.5 | win 7–12 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Arizona
@ BYU |
Arizona +7.5 agree | -110 median of 5 books | +1.7 | -7.0 | +0.5 | loss 17–28 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Georgia Southern
@ Clemson |
Georgia Southern +21.5 agree | -110 median of 4 books | +3.3 | -19.5 | +2.0 | win 7–22 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Maryland
@ UConn |
UConn +13 agree | -110 median of 5 books | -1.4 | +11.5 | +1.5 | loss 38–14 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Utah State
@ Washington |
Utah State +26.5 | -108 median of 5 books | +1.4 | -28.0 | -1.5 | win 14–16 | 2026-09-08 20:01:22 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Rice
@ Notre Dame |
Rice +44.5 | -110 median of 5 books | +2.3 | -44.5 | +0.0 | loss 0–52 | 2026-09-08 20:01:22 |
| 2026-09-12 | Memphis
@ Boise State |
Memphis +8.5 | -112 median of 5 books | +1.5 | -9.5 | -1.0 | loss 20–38 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 | Navy
@Florida Atlantic |
Navy -5.5 agree | -114 median of 4 books | +2.7 | +4.0 | -1.5 | loss 30–38 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Tulsa
@ Sam Houston |
Sam Houston +14 agree | -110 median of 5 books | -2.0 | +11.5 | +2.5 | win 23–17 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  App State
@ East Carolina |
App State +9.5 | -110 median of 5 books | +4.1 | -6.5 | +3.0 | win 27–24 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 | New Mexico State
@Hawai'i |
New Mexico State +10 agree | -110 median of 4 books | +1.7 | -7.5 | +2.5 | push 19–29 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Buffalo
@ Florida International |
Florida International -10.5 | -108 median of 5 books | -1.2 | -10.0 | -0.5 | win 20–33 | 2026-09-08 20:01:22 |
| 2026-09-12 | Jacksonville State
@Ohio |
Jacksonville State +2.5 | -104 median of 5 books | +1.7 | -1.5 | +1.0 | win 27–29 | 2026-09-09 16:01:15 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Louisiana Tech
@LSU |
Louisiana Tech +32.5 agree | -108 median of 4 books | +1.9 | -35.0 | -2.5 | win 14–45 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-11 | Missouri
@Kansas |
Kansas +6.5 agree | -108 median of 5 books | -1.1 | +4.5 | +2.0 | loss 38–21 | 2026-09-06 22:00:52 |
| 2026-09-11 | Rutgers
@Boston College |
Boston College -3.5 | -105 median of 5 books | -1.0 | -3.0 | -0.5 | win 21–28 | 2026-09-08 20:01:22 |
| 2026-09-06 |  Louisville
@Ole Miss |
Louisville +6.5 | -105 median of 4 books | +1.2 | -6.5 | +0.0 | win 38–41 | 2026-09-05 18:55:11 |
| 2026-09-06 |  Wisconsin
@Notre Dame |
Wisconsin +20.5 | -108 median of 5 books | +1.0 | -21.5 | -1.0 | loss 13–41 | 2026-09-05 18:55:11 |
| 2026-09-05 |  Baylor
@Auburn |
Baylor +7 | -105 median of 5 books | +1.3 | -6.5 | +0.5 | win 16–17 | 2026-09-05 18:55:11 |
| 2026-09-05 |  UL Monroe
@ Mississippi State |
UL Monroe +28.5 | -112 median of 5 books | +1.5 | -28.5 | +0.0 | loss 13–62 | 2026-09-05 18:55:11 |
Can we call the total?
The totals model · its side when it disagrees with the closing total by 5+ points
One model over everything we hold — both teams’ season efficiency, pace, roster inputs, the line’s own move since it opened — predicts how far the final total will land from the closing total. Walk-forward 2021–25 on exactly the inputs this page can see before kickoff, when it disagreed by five or more points its side covered 55% (625–510), above 50% in every season and above break-even in four of five, and the market’s total was about 2½ points low where it said over. Break-even is 52.4%. Logged inside the last 30 hours before kickoff at the consensus total and the median price, never re-picked, graded here.
| Date | Game | The bet | Price | Model says | Close | Result | Logged (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 |  Arizona State
@ Texas A&M |
Over 50.5 | -112 median of 5 books | +5.4 pts | +50.5 | win 20–48 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Oregon
@ Oklahoma State |
Under 55.5 | -113 median of 5 books | -5.9 pts | +55.5 | loss 31–39 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 | Georgia Southern
@Clemson |
Over 54.5 | -115 median of 5 books | +10.4 pts | +54.5 | loss 7–22 | 2026-09-12 19:03:59 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Old Dominion
@ Virginia Tech |
Under 48.5 | -115 median of 5 books | -6.0 pts | +47.5 | loss 21–44 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 | Wake Forest
@Purdue |
Over 49.5 | -115 median of 5 books | +7.2 pts | +50.5 | win 38–36 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 | Eastern Michigan
@ Michigan State |
Over 49.5 | -110 median of 5 books | +5.4 pts | +49.5 | loss 7–35 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 |  Bowling Green
@ Nebraska |
Over 50.5 | -108 median of 5 books | +7.7 pts | +49.5 | win 7–56 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 | Louisiana
@USC |
Under 59.5 | -115 median of 5 books | -12.3 pts | +58.5 | loss 30–49 | 2026-09-11 22:02:02 |
| 2026-09-12 | Utah State
@Washington |
Under 55.5 | -110 median of 5 books | -12.8 pts | +55.5 | win 14–16 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 | Navy
@Florida Atlantic |
Under 58.5 | -108 median of 5 books | -6.6 pts | +59.5 | loss 30–38 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 | App State
@East Carolina |
Over 56.5 | -108 median of 5 books | +5.6 pts | +55.5 | loss 27–24 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-12 | Louisiana Tech
@LSU |
Over 55.5 | -114 median of 5 books | +5.5 pts | +55.5 | win 14–45 | 2026-09-11 20:03:01 |
| 2026-09-05 |  Northern Illinois
@Iowa |
Over 44.5 | -110 median of 5 books | +6.4 pts | +44.5 | loss 0–40 | 2026-09-05 19:36:56 |
| 2026-09-05 |  Arkansas State
@Memphis |
Over 52.5 | -114 median of 5 books | +5.9 pts | +52.5 | win 24–42 | 2026-09-05 19:36:56 |
| 2026-09-05 | Florida International
@South Florida |
Over 53.5 | -108 median of 5 books | +5.0 pts | +53.5 | loss 9–19 | 2026-09-05 19:36:57 |
Running as experiments
Shadow programs — logged the same way, counted separately, never folded into the record above
Across 10,777 games from 2016–2025 this model finished at 49.5% against the spread and 49.5% on totals — under the 52.4% a bet at −110 needs to break even, in every season. We have no edge on these markets and we don’t claim one. What this page is for is the forward record: what was said before kickoff, graded in public.