BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Western Kentucky

CUSA · 0-2 · power -0.2 · #186
Our side · spreadWKU +44.5 our number IU -33.2 · 11.3 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected -2.4 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Indiana

B1G · 2-0 · power +33.9 · #3
Our side
SpreadWKU +44.5 ours IU -33.2
TotalUnder 59.5 ours 57.2
MoneylineIU to win ours 98%
Distance from the market 11.3 pts / -2.3 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 12–45 WKU – IU
2026-09-19 · 4:00 PM Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Bloomington, IN Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book WKU spreadIU spread OverUnder WKU winIU win WKU TT overWKU TT under IU TT overIU TT under
DraftKings — — — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadIndiana -33.2
the marketIndiana -44.5
Total57.2
the market59.5
Indiana win98% vs —

Both percentages are Indiana’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series Indiana lead 5–0 · 5 meetings since 2008
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Indiana Hoosiers 143 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #145 rush offense Indiana Hoosiers #2 run defense
Pass game edge Indiana Hoosiers 69 ranks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #135 pass offense Indiana Hoosiers #66 pass defense
Run game edge Indiana Hoosiers 76 ranks
Indiana Hoosiers #45 rush offense Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #121 run defense
Pass game edge Indiana Hoosiers 68 ranks
Indiana Hoosiers #8 pass offense Western Kentucky Hilltoppers #76 pass defense
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Balanced · 49% run Avg pace Indiana Hoosiers Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control
Tyson Helton · 57-36 Curt Cignetti · 46-6

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
RB Ajay Allen 121 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #106 RB
DB Justin Brown 9 tkl · 1 INT #319 DB
TE Coleson Arends 2 rec · 18 yds · 1 TD #92 TE
DB Jaylen Lewis 13 tkl #491 DB
Indiana Hoosiers
LB Rolijah Hardy 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #15 LB
WR Charlie Becker 7 rec · 145 yds · 5 TD #21 WR
RB Turbo Richard 166 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #34 RB
DL Tobi Osunsanmi 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #181 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Western Kentucky HilltoppersCUSA -0.2 +5.5 -5.6 #186
Indiana HoosiersB1G +33.9 +18.5 +15.4 #3

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Western Kentucky offense vs Indiana defense-9.9 pts
Indiana offense vs Western Kentucky defense+24.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.