BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Louisiana Tech

CUSA · 1-1 · power +3.9 · #134
Our side · spreadLT +18.5 our number BAY -17.8 · 0.7 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected +2.6 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Baylor

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.3 · #47
Our side
SpreadLT +18.5 ours BAY -17.8
TotalUnder 55.5 ours 54.3
MoneylineBAY to win ours 80% · book 89%
Distance from the market 0.7 pts / -1.2 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 18–36 LT – BAY
2026-09-19 · 4:00 PM McLane Stadium · Waco, TX Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book LT spreadBAY spread OverUnder LT winBAY win LT TT overLT TT under BAY TT overBAY TT under
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadBaylor -17.8
the marketBaylor -18.5
Total54.3
the market55.5
Baylor win80% vs 89%

Both percentages are Baylor’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series Baylor lead 5–1 · 6 meetings since 1981
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 60 ranks
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #106 rush offense Baylor Bears #166 run defense
Pass game even 43 ranks apart
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #178 pass offense Baylor Bears #135 pass defense
Run game even 22 ranks apart
Baylor Bears #68 rush offense Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #46 run defense
Pass game edge Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 88 ranks
Baylor Bears #144 pass offense Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #56 pass defense
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Run-heavy · 67% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 32 rush ypg Baylor Bears Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Sonny Cumbie · 21-34 · defense-minded Dave Aranda · 36-37

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
LB Alonzo Jackson Jr. 16 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #2 LB
DB Jordan McRae 12 tkl · 1 INT #15 DB
WR Jalen Mickens 9 rec · 234 yds · 2 TD #41 WR
DB Sam Fongang 15 tkl #141 DB
Baylor Bears
WR Gavin Freeman 22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD #9 WR
DL Garrick Ponder 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #56 DL
DL Devonte Tezino 4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #73 DL
DB Devin Turner 9 tkl · 1 PD #235 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Louisiana Tech BulldogsCUSA +3.9 +4.1 -0.2 #134
Baylor BearsB12 +17.3 +9.6 +7.7 #47

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Louisiana Tech offense vs Baylor defense-3.6 pts
Baylor offense vs Louisiana Tech defense+9.8 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.