BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

UAB

AAC · 1-1 · power -1.0 · #189
Our side · spreadUL -8.5 our number UL -12.2 · 3.7 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected -0.7 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Louisiana

SBC · 1-1 · power +10.2 · #81
Our side
SpreadUL -8.5 ours UL -12.2
TotalUnder 57.5 ours 55.5
MoneylineUL to win ours 76% · book 74%
Distance from the market 3.7 pts / -2.0 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 22–34 UAB – UL
2026-09-19 · 8:00 PM Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium · Lafayette, LA Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UAB spreadUL spread OverUnder UAB winUL win UAB TT overUAB TT under UL TT overUL TT under
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadLouisiana -12.2
the marketLouisiana -8.5
Total55.5
the market57.5
Louisiana win76% vs 74%

Both percentages are Louisiana’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series UAB and Louisiana split 8 (4–4) · 8 meetings since 1995
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UAB Blazers 153 ranks
UAB Blazers #77 rush offense Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #230 run defense
Pass game edge UAB Blazers 48 ranks
UAB Blazers #103 pass offense Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #151 pass defense
Run game edge Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 163 ranks
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #81 rush offense UAB Blazers #244 run defense
Pass game edge Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 45 ranks
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns #213 pass offense UAB Blazers #258 pass defense
UAB Blazers Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg
Trent Dilfer · 9-21 · offense-minded Michael Desormeaux · 29-25

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UAB Blazers
K Jonah Delange 7 FG · 4 XP · 25 pts #6 K
LB Ike Esonwune 15 tkl #67 LB
LB Muaaz Byard 20 tkl · 1.5 TFL #126 LB
DB Jo'Tavion Pierce 11 tkl · 1 PD #244 DB
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
DB Brent Gordon Jr. 11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #72 DB
DB Avery Demery 8 tkl · 1 INT #188 DB
DB Collin Jacob 17 tkl #211 DB
TE Caden Jensen 5 rec · 77 yds #59 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UAB BlazersAAC -1.0 +2.0 -3.0 #189
Louisiana Ragin' CajunsSBC +10.2 +8.1 +2.1 #81

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UAB offense vs Louisiana defense-0.1 pts
Louisiana offense vs UAB defense+11.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.