BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Miami (OH)

MAC · 1-1 · power +4.3 · #128
Our side · spreadM-OH +14.5 our number CIN -9.2 · 5.3 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected -4.6 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Cincinnati

B12 · 2-0 · power +16.3 · #51
Our side
SpreadM-OH +14.5 ours CIN -9.2
TotalOver 48.5 ours 50.3
MoneylineCIN to win ours 78% · book 84%
Distance from the market 5.3 pts / +1.8 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 21–30 M-OH – CIN
2026-09-19 · 3:30 PM TQL Stadium · Cincinnati, OH Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book M-OH spreadCIN spread OverUnder M-OH winCIN win M-OH TT overM-OH TT under CIN TT overCIN TT under
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadCincinnati -9.2
the marketCincinnati -14.5
Total50.3
the market48.5
Cincinnati win78% vs 84%

Both percentages are Cincinnati’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series Cincinnati lead 35–34–1 · 70 meetings since 1954
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 29 ranks apart
Miami (OH) RedHawks #156 rush offense Cincinnati Bearcats #185 run defense
Pass game even 8 ranks apart
Miami (OH) RedHawks #160 pass offense Cincinnati Bearcats #152 pass defense
Run game edge Cincinnati Bearcats 47 ranks
Cincinnati Bearcats #27 rush offense Miami (OH) RedHawks #74 run defense
Pass game even 37 ranks apart
Cincinnati Bearcats #37 pass offense Miami (OH) RedHawks #74 pass defense
Miami (OH) RedHawks Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 49 rush ypg Cincinnati Bearcats Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Chuck Martin · 70-64 · defense-minded Scott Satterfield · 80-57 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Miami (OH) RedHawks
QB David McComb 474 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #62 QB
WR Damarion Witten 3 rec · 100 yds · 2 TD #203 WR
TE Christian Ross 4 rec · 52 yds · 1 TD #81 TE
WR Lynel Billups-Williams 8 rec · 104 yds · 1 TD #266 WR
Cincinnati Bearcats
RB Gi'Bran Payne 210 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #70 RB
DL Josh Hough 7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #206 DL
WR JV Gibson 9 rec · 133 yds · 2 TD #129 WR
LB Jonathan Thompson 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #144 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Miami (OH) RedHawksMAC +4.3 +3.3 +0.9 #128
Cincinnati BearcatsB12 +16.3 +8.9 +7.5 #51

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Miami (OH) offense vs Cincinnati defense-4.1 pts
Cincinnati offense vs Miami (OH) defense+7.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.