BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Florida

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.0 · #38
Our side · spreadAUB +2.5 our number FLA -1.7 · 0.8 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected -4.8 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Auburn

SEC · 2-0 · power +21.2 · #30
Our side
SpreadAUB +2.5 ours FLA -1.7
MoneylineAUB to win ours 57% · book 45%
Distance from the market 0.8 pts a caution, not a signal
Projected score 25–24 FLA – AUB
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn, AL SEC game Early season

The books 2 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book FLA spreadAUB spread OverUnder FLA winAUB win FLA TT overFLA TT under AUB TT overAUB TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadFlorida -1.7
the marketAuburn +2.5
Total48.7
Auburn win57% vs 45%

Both percentages are Auburn’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Series Auburn lead 44–39–2 · 85 meetings since 1904
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Auburn Tigers 75 ranks
Florida Gators #80 rush offense Auburn Tigers #5 run defense
Pass game edge Auburn Tigers 57 ranks
Florida Gators #184 pass offense Auburn Tigers #127 pass defense
Run game edge Auburn Tigers 55 ranks
Auburn Tigers #23 rush offense Florida Gators #78 run defense
Pass game even 25 ranks apart
Auburn Tigers #193 pass offense Florida Gators #168 pass defense
Florida Gators Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Auburn Tigers Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Billy Napier · 62-35 Hugh Freeze · 64-44

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Gators
DL Jeramiah McCloud 12 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #27 DL
RB Jadan Baugh 296 rush yds · 5 TD #12 RB
WR Vernell Brown III 9 rec · 160 yds · 2 TD #112 WR
DL LJ McCray 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #207 DL
Auburn Tigers
LB Elijah Melendez 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #4 LB
DB Andre Jordan Jr. 5 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #14 DB
DL Cody Sigler 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #149 DL
DB Eric Winters 14 tkl #194 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida GatorsSEC +20.0 +9.7 +10.3 #38
Auburn TigersSEC +21.2 +5.8 +15.4 #30

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida offense vs Auburn defense-5.8 pts
Auburn offense vs Florida defense-4.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.