← Matchups

North Carolina

ACC · 2-0 · power +13.1 · #65
Our numberUNC -1.6 no book has priced this game

Clemson

ACC · 1-1 · power +15.6 · #53
Our side
MoneylineCLEM to win ours 60% · book 71%
Projected score 24–23 UNC – CLEM
2026-09-19 · 12:00 PM Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson, SC ACC game Early season

The books 2 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UNC spreadCLEM spread OverUnder UNC winCLEM win UNC TT overUNC TT under CLEM TT overCLEM TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Series Clemson lead 40–18–1 · 59 meetings since 1903
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Clemson Tigers 169 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #236 rush offense Clemson Tigers #67 run defense
Pass game edge Clemson Tigers 77 ranks
North Carolina Tar Heels #161 pass offense Clemson Tigers #84 pass defense
Run game even 40 ranks apart
Clemson Tigers #131 rush offense North Carolina Tar Heels #171 run defense
Pass game even 3 ranks apart
Clemson Tigers #101 pass offense North Carolina Tar Heels #98 pass defense
North Carolina Tar Heels Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Clemson Tigers Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Bill Belichick · 4-8 Dabo Swinney · 126-27

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Tar Heels
DL Xavier Lewis 12 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 6.5 TFL #1 DL
DL Jaylen Harvey 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #59 DL
TE Jelani Thurman 8 rec · 165 yds · 1 TD #15 TE
DB Greg Smith 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #255 DB
Clemson Tigers
DL Will Heldt 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #42 DL
DB Elliot Washington II 10 tkl · 3 PD #153 DB
K Nolan Hauser 6 FG · 2 XP · 20 pts #23 K
DB Jerome Carter III 15 tkl · 1 PD #184 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Carolina Tar HeelsACC +13.1 -1.9 +15.0 #65
Clemson TigersACC +15.6 +4.8 +10.7 #53

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Carolina offense vs Clemson defense-12.7 pts
Clemson offense vs North Carolina defense-10.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.