← Matchups

Murray State

· 1-2 · power -21.1 · #382
Our numberOKST -37.3 no book has priced this game

Oklahoma State

B12 · 1-1 · power +7.3 · #99
Our side
MoneylineOKST to win ours 98%
Projected score 7–44 MUR – OKST
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM Boone Pickens Stadium · Stillwater, OK Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Murray State Racers 54 ranks
Murray State Racers #167 rush offense Oklahoma State Cowboys #221 run defense
Pass game even 16 ranks apart
Murray State Racers #228 pass offense Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass defense
Run game even 3 ranks apart
Oklahoma State Cowboys #257 rush offense Murray State Racers #260 run defense
Pass game even 19 ranks apart
Oklahoma State Cowboys #244 pass offense Murray State Racers #263 pass defense
Murray State Racers Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Oklahoma State Cowboys Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Mike Gundy · 86-46

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Murray State Racers
DL Jayden Walker 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #67 DL
LB Klayton Ingram 22 tkl · 1.5 TFL #132 LB
RB Tyrell Campbell 213 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #108 RB
DB Dylan Rowsey 18 tkl · 1 PD #377 DB
Oklahoma State Cowboys
WR Wyatt Young 13 rec · 205 yds · 1 TD #44 WR
RB Caleb Hawkins 189 rush yds · 1 TD · 8 rec #56 RB
LB Ethan Wesloski 16 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #101 LB
QB Drew Mestemaker 558 pass yds · 3 TD · 4 INT #38 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Murray State Racers -21.1 -12.8 -8.3 #382
Oklahoma State CowboysB12 +7.3 +1.5 +5.9 #99

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Murray State offense vs Oklahoma State defense-18.7 pts
Oklahoma State offense vs Murray State defense+9.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 488 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.