← Matchups

Central State (OH)

· 0-1 · power -29.3 · #396
Our numberUAPB -14.4 no book has priced this game

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -18.2 · #366
Our side
MoneylineUAPB to win ours 79%
Projected score 24–39 CENT – UAPB
2026-09-19 · 5:00 PM Simmons Bank Field · Pine Bluff, AR Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Central State (OH) lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2017
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Balanced · 54% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Central State (OH) Marauders
DL Jaylen Burrell 4 tkl #159 DL
DL Bishop Blakely 8 tkl · 1.0 TFL #278 DL
DL Dylan Purry 4 tkl #429 DL
DL Dematthew Dixon 4 tkl #430 DL
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
DB Michael Henderson 21 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #7 DB
DL Derick Simon Jr. 19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #75 DL
DL Keiyhaun Wilks 13 tkl · 3.0 TFL #188 DL
LB Danarius Hilliard 26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #142 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Central State (OH) Marauders -29.3 -14.3 -15.1 #396
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions -18.2 -2.7 -15.4 #366

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Central State (OH) offense vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff defense+1.2 pts
Arkansas-Pine Bluff offense vs Central State (OH) defense+12.3 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.