Our side
MoneylineUALB to win
ours 58%
Projected score
27–30
MONM – UALB
2026-09-19 · 3:30 PM
Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium · Albany, NY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UAlbany lead
9–6
· 15 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Monmouth Hawks
122 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #26 rush offense
UAlbany Great Danes #148 run defense
Pass game
edge Monmouth Hawks
142 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #21 pass offense
UAlbany Great Danes #163 pass defense
Run game
edge Monmouth Hawks
74 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #208 rush offense
Monmouth Hawks #134 run defense
Pass game
edge Monmouth Hawks
99 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #227 pass offense
Monmouth Hawks #128 pass defense
Monmouth Hawks
Balanced · 51% run
Up-tempo
UAlbany Great Danes
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Monmouth Hawks
DB
Jaeden Jones
33 tkl
#31 DB
RB
Kenny Smith Jr.
166 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#41 RB
WR
Tra Neal
19 rec · 188 yds · 1 TD
#63 WR
WR
Gavin Nelson
19 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
#83 WR
UAlbany Great Danes
DL
Shawan Lewis
10 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#48 DL
DB
Victor Holt
19 tkl · 2 PD
#176 DB
RB
Joey Koch
216 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec
#95 RB
DL
Isaiah Boyd
11 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#304 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Monmouth offense vs UAlbany defense+0.5 pts
UAlbany offense vs Monmouth defense+1.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+3.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).