← Matchups

Austin Peay

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #117
Our numberWEST -1.3 no book has priced this game

West Florida

· 2-0 · power +4.1 · #130
Our side
MoneylineWEST to win ours 53%
Projected score 28–29 APSU – WEST
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM Pen-Air Field · Pensacola, FL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Austin Peay Governors Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Austin Peay Governors
DL Demoris Jenkins 8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #55 DL
WR Denver Harper 7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD #45 WR
DB Trevor Hardy 21 tkl · 1 PD #100 DB
DL Malik Denkins 7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #210 DL
West Florida Argonauts
DL A'Khoury Lyde 1 tkl #47 DL
DL Cameron Anderson 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #155 DL
DL Carson Ratliff 11 tkl #322 DL
DL Roderick Webb 1 tkl #392 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Austin Peay Governors +5.6 +2.8 +2.7 #117
West Florida Argonauts +4.1 +2.6 +1.5 #130

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Austin Peay offense vs West Florida defense+1.4 pts
West Florida offense vs Austin Peay defense-0.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 414 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.