Our side
MoneylineMEM to win
ours 96%
Projected score
11–43
UTM – MEM
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Memphis lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2009
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Memphis Tigers
131 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #199 rush offense
Memphis Tigers #68 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Martin Skyhawks
122 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #108 pass offense
Memphis Tigers #230 pass defense
Run game
edge Memphis Tigers
70 ranks
Memphis Tigers #15 rush offense
UT Martin Skyhawks #85 run defense
Pass game
edge Memphis Tigers
116 ranks
Memphis Tigers #132 pass offense
UT Martin Skyhawks #248 pass defense
UT Martin Skyhawks
Run-heavy · 63% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg
Memphis Tigers
Balanced · 51% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
Ryan Silverfield · 50-24 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UT Martin Skyhawks
P
Max Zuluaga
8 punts · 51.4 yd avg
#1 P
DB
Trey Cotton
23 tkl · 1 INT
#12 DB
DL
Chris Wilson
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#78 DL
DB
Jamal Mayers
12 tkl · 3 PD
#73 DB
Memphis Tigers
TE
Hunter Tipton
14 rec · 291 yds · 2 TD
#1 TE
DL
Elijah Kinsler
18 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#8 DL
RB
Jaylin Carter
375 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec
#5 RB
LB
Zach Ruffin
24 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#12 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UT Martin offense vs Memphis defense-13.1 pts
Memphis offense vs UT Martin defense+10.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+33.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).