Our side
MoneylineSDST to win
ours 60%
Projected score
31–35
YSU – SDST
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM
Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium · Brookings, SD
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
South Dakota State lead
15–3
· 18 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
0 ranks apart
Youngstown State Penguins #30 rush offense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game
edge Youngstown State Penguins
59 ranks
Youngstown State Penguins #34 pass offense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
Run game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
82 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense
Youngstown State Penguins #189 run defense
Pass game
edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits
108 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense
Youngstown State Penguins #219 pass defense
Youngstown State Penguins
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 113 rush ypg
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Youngstown State Penguins
WR
Lynn Wyche-El
18 rec · 229 yds · 4 TD
#16 WR
QB
Beau Brungard
765 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
#10 QB
P
Evan Anderson
5 punts · 47.0 yd avg
#6 P
RB
Jaden Gilbert
129 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#44 RB
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K
Tristan Alvano
6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts
#4 K
P
Max Pelham
10 punts · 47.9 yd avg
#3 P
TE
Greyton Gannon
5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD
#36 TE
WR
Grahm Goering
13 rec · 254 yds
#127 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Youngstown State offense vs South Dakota State defense+8.2 pts
South Dakota State offense vs Youngstown State defense+11.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+5.7
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 847 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.