Our side · spreadGASO +3.5our number JXST -3.3 · 0.2 pts from the marketour number starts from the opening line and is corrected +2.4 for this matchup by our data on both teams
Jacksonville State
CUSA · 1-2 · power +5.2 · #123
Our side
SpreadGASO +3.5ours JXST -3.3
TotalUnder 53.5ours 52.4
MoneylineJXST to winours 52% · book 61%
Distance from the market0.2 pts / -1.1 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score24–28GASO – JXST
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PMAmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville, ALEarly season
The books 3 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
GASO spread
JXST spread
Over
Under
GASO win
JXST win
GASO TT over
GASO TT under
JXST TT over
JXST TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
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BetMGM
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The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadJacksonville State -3.3
the marketJacksonville State -3.5
Total52.4
the market53.5
Jacksonville State win52%
vs 61%
Both percentages are Jacksonville State’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured 1 hr agototalOver 86% bets · 86% money
Series
Georgia Southern lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameeven5 ranks apart
Georgia Southern Eagles #101 rush offenseJacksonville State Gamecocks #106 run defense
Clay Helton · 72-49 · offense-mindedCharles Kelly · 9-5
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Georgia Southern offense vs Jacksonville State defense-1.6 pts
Jacksonville State offense vs Georgia Southern defense-2.6 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.