BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Marshall

SBC · 1-1 · power +5.2 · #121
Our numberMRSH -3.6 no book has priced this game

Missouri State

CUSA · 1-1 · power +6.7 · #106
Our side
TotalOver 51.5 ours 53.7
MoneylineMOST to win ours 57% · book 38%
Projected score 29–25 MRSH – MOST
2026-09-19 · 6:30 PM Robert W. Plaster Stadium · Springfield, MO Early season

The books 2 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book MRSH spreadMOST spread OverUnder MRSH winMOST win MRSH TT overMRSH TT under MOST TT overMOST TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadMarshall -3.6
Total53.7
the market51.5
Missouri State win57% vs 38%

Both percentages are Missouri State’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 1 hr ago total Over 64% bets · 63% money
Series Missouri State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 20 ranks apart
Marshall Thundering Herd #172 rush offense Missouri State Bears #192 run defense
Pass game edge Marshall Thundering Herd 139 ranks
Marshall Thundering Herd #61 pass offense Missouri State Bears #200 pass defense
Run game edge Marshall Thundering Herd 118 ranks
Missouri State Bears #187 rush offense Marshall Thundering Herd #69 run defense
Pass game edge Missouri State Bears 60 ranks
Missouri State Bears #90 pass offense Marshall Thundering Herd #150 pass defense
Marshall Thundering Herd Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg Missouri State Bears Balanced · 49% run Avg pace
Tony Gibson · 5-7 Ryan Beard · 7-5 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Marshall Thundering Herd
DB Caleb Clark-Glover 20 tkl · 2 PD #50 DB
DL Kelvon McBride 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #91 DL
TE Toby Payne 9 rec · 61 yds #49 TE
DL Nate Blanc 2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #323 DL
Missouri State Bears
LB Jared Lloyd 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #39 LB
DB Joel Boamah 8 tkl · 3 PD #197 DB
WR Isaiah Myers 5 rec · 155 yds · 1 TD #141 WR
DB Anthony Mattison 6 tkl · 1 PD #367 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Marshall Thundering HerdSBC +5.2 +3.8 +1.3 #121
Missouri State BearsCUSA +6.7 +3.9 +2.7 #106

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Marshall offense vs Missouri State defense+1.1 pts
Missouri State offense vs Marshall defense+2.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 598 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.