Our side
MoneylineW&M to win
ours 81%
Projected score
18–34
FOR – W&M
2026-09-19 · 6:00 PM
Walter J. Zable Stadium · Williamsburg, VA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Fordham Rams
52 ranks
Fordham Rams #186 rush offense
William & Mary Tribe #238 run defense
Pass game
even
39 ranks apart
Fordham Rams #252 pass offense
William & Mary Tribe #213 pass defense
Run game
edge Fordham Rams
69 ranks
William & Mary Tribe #104 rush offense
Fordham Rams #35 run defense
Pass game
edge William & Mary Tribe
95 ranks
William & Mary Tribe #102 pass offense
Fordham Rams #197 pass defense
Fordham Rams
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
William & Mary Tribe
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 56 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Fordham Rams
LB
Andrew Osmun
29 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#5 LB
DB
Justin Johnson
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#34 DB
DL
Lorenzo Riddick
9 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#125 DL
DL
Jakub Mwangelwa
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#141 DL
William & Mary Tribe
DL
Nathaniel McDonald
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#37 DL
K
Max Lipinski
8 FG · 5 XP · 29 pts
#13 K
DB
Trevon Cannon
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#130 DB
DB
David Roulley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#157 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Fordham offense vs William & Mary defense-9.7 pts
William & Mary offense vs Fordham defense+3.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+16.7
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).