Our side
MoneylineCARK to win
ours 44%
Projected score
30–28
CARK – SEMO
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM
Houck Field · Cape Girardeau, MO
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Central Arkansas and Southeast Missouri State split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
39 ranks apart
Central Arkansas Bears #143 rush offense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #104 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
Central Arkansas Bears #185 pass offense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #162 pass defense
Run game
edge Central Arkansas Bears
75 ranks
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #243 rush offense
Central Arkansas Bears #168 run defense
Pass game
edge Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
113 ranks
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #125 pass offense
Central Arkansas Bears #238 pass defense
Central Arkansas Bears
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Central Arkansas Bears
DB
Bryson Adamoh
5 tkl · 3 PD · 3 INT
#6 DB
LB
Ashtyn Williams
28 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#70 LB
DL
Jakobe Shell
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#129 DL
DL
Trevion Traylor
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#138 DL
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
DB
DJ Delmore
22 tkl · 2 PD
#20 DB
DL
Timothy Maxson
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#72 DL
P
Teagan Cobb
15 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#12 P
WR
John Anthony Jr.
10 rec · 219 yds · 2 TD
#98 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Central Arkansas offense vs Southeast Missouri State defense+3.4 pts
Southeast Missouri State offense vs Central Arkansas defense+1.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment+0.3
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).