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Nicholls

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -4.6 · #236
Our numberSHSU -13.0 no book has priced this game

Sam Houston

CUSA · 0-2 · power -5.4 · #248
Our side
MoneylineSHSU to win ours 76%
Projected score 21–34 NICH – SHSU
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Huntsville, TX Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Sam Houston lead 12–3 · 15 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 9 ranks apart
Nicholls Colonels #198 rush offense Sam Houston Bearkats #207 run defense
Pass game even 28 ranks apart
Nicholls Colonels #212 pass offense Sam Houston Bearkats #240 pass defense
Run game edge Sam Houston Bearkats 97 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #152 rush offense Nicholls Colonels #249 run defense
Pass game edge Nicholls Colonels 197 ranks
Sam Houston Bearkats #259 pass offense Nicholls Colonels #62 pass defense
Nicholls Colonels Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control Sam Houston Bearkats Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 39 rush ypg
Phil Longo · 2-10

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Nicholls Colonels
DB Skylar Husband 20 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #71 DB
DL Alex Villavaso 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #102 DL
LB Kennon Loftin 24 tkl #96 LB
WR Jackson Dufrene 6 rec · 105 yds · 3 TD #101 WR
Sam Houston Bearkats
DL Brody Henderson 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #94 DL
WR Chris Reed 7 rec · 145 yds · 2 TD #94 WR
WR Grady O'Neill 12 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD #103 WR
DB Ishmel Atkins 7 tkl · 4 PD #254 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Nicholls Colonels -4.6 -2.7 -1.9 #236
Sam Houston BearkatsCUSA -5.4 -4.3 -1.1 #248

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Nicholls offense vs Sam Houston defense-1.5 pts
Sam Houston offense vs Nicholls defense-2.3 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.