← Matchups

Wagner

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -17.7 · #364
Our numberCAL -33.8 no book has priced this game

California

ACC · 1-1 (1-0 ACC) · power +6.6 · #107
Our side
MoneylineCAL to win ours 97%
Projected score 10–44 WAG – CAL
2026-09-19 · 3:30 PM California Memorial Stadium · Berkeley, CA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 3 ranks apart
Wagner Seahawks #237 rush offense California Golden Bears #234 run defense
Pass game edge California Golden Bears 221 ranks
Wagner Seahawks #264 pass offense California Golden Bears #43 pass defense
Run game edge Wagner Seahawks 184 ranks
California Golden Bears #248 rush offense Wagner Seahawks #64 run defense
Pass game even 15 ranks apart
California Golden Bears #150 pass offense Wagner Seahawks #165 pass defense
Wagner Seahawks Run-heavy · 71% run Avg pace California Golden Bears Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Nick Rolovich · 34-34

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Wagner Seahawks
DB Julio Tatis 7 tkl · 1 INT #163 DB
DL Jordan Gaston 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #435 DL
WR Zion Fowler-El 16 rec · 143 yds #291 WR
DB Shamar Williams 10 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #503 DB
California Golden Bears
DB Kingston Lopa 11 tkl · 4 INT #2 DB
DB Daniel Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #56 DB
RB Adam Mohammed 194 rush yds · 1 TD · 12 rec #28 RB
TE Mason Mini 6 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD #28 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Wagner Seahawks -17.7 -10.9 -6.8 #364
California Golden BearsACC +6.6 +3.4 +3.2 #107

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Wagner offense vs California defense-14.1 pts
California offense vs Wagner defense+10.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,552 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.