← Matchups

UTSA

AAC · 2-0 · power +19.0 · #42
Our numberTEX -16.3 no book has priced this game

Texas

SEC · 2-0 · power +30.0 · #7
Our side
TotalUnder 58.5 ours 56.0
MoneylineTEX to win ours 76% · book 96%
Projected score 20–36 UTSA – TEX
2026-09-19 · 8:00 PM DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · Austin, TX Early season

The books 4 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UTSA spreadTEX spread OverUnder UTSA winTEX win UTSA TT overUTSA TT under TEX TT overTEX TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadTexas -16.3
Total56.0
the market58.5
Texas win76% vs 96%

Both percentages are Texas’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 10 min ago spread TEX 83% bets · 92% money total Under 51% bets · 40% money · money Over
Series Texas lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 18 ranks apart
UTSA Roadrunners #51 rush offense Texas Longhorns #33 run defense
Pass game even 2 ranks apart
UTSA Roadrunners #83 pass offense Texas Longhorns #81 pass defense
Run game even 43 ranks apart
Texas Longhorns #130 rush offense UTSA Roadrunners #173 run defense
Pass game edge Texas Longhorns 105 ranks
Texas Longhorns #104 pass offense UTSA Roadrunners #209 pass defense
UTSA Roadrunners Balanced · 46% run Ball-control Texas Longhorns Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Jeff Traylor · 53-26 · offense-minded Steve Sarkisian · 48-20

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UTSA Roadrunners
LB Brandon Tucker 18 tkl · 0.5 TFL #78 LB
DB Ahamad Chapman 3 tkl · 1 INT #177 DB
WR Mekhi Anderson 12 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #144 WR
WR AJ Wilson 11 rec · 125 yds · 1 TD #155 WR
Texas Longhorns
RB Hollywood Smothers 144 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #17 RB
DB Graceson Littleton 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #52 DB
WR Ryan Wingo 11 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #64 WR
LB Justin Cryer 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #88 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UTSA RoadrunnersAAC +19.0 +11.8 +7.2 #42
Texas LonghornsSEC +30.0 +14.2 +15.8 #7

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UTSA offense vs Texas defense-4.0 pts
Texas offense vs UTSA defense+7.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.