Our side
MoneylineGWEB to win
ours 70%
Projected score
24–33
NCCU – GWEB
2026-09-19 · 6:00 PM
Ernest W. Spangler Stadium · Boiling Springs, NC
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Gardner-Webb and North Carolina Central split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2017
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
2 ranks apart
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #191 run defense
Pass game
edge North Carolina Central Eagles
124 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #167 pass defense
Run game
even
10 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #135 rush offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game
even
8 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #95 pass offense
North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
North Carolina Central Eagles
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL
Zarion Walters
17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL
#12 DL
DB
Joshua Truesdale
19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#88 DB
RB
Plez Lawrence
264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#92 RB
DB
Jakarri Martin II
9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#231 DB
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
LB
Tre Yanez
31 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#11 LB
DB
Jamarion Ravenell
14 tkl · 2 PD
#30 DB
WR
Kory Jones
18 rec · 288 yds
#58 WR
DB
Sabin McLaughlin
13 tkl · 1 PD
#133 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Carolina Central offense vs Gardner-Webb defense-3.1 pts
Gardner-Webb offense vs North Carolina Central defense+4.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).