← Matchups

North Carolina Central

· 2-1 · power -11.9 · #318
Our numberGWEB -9.6 no book has priced this game

Gardner-Webb

· 0-3 · power -4.1 · #231
Our side
MoneylineGWEB to win ours 70%
Projected score 24–33 NCCU – GWEB
2026-09-19 · 6:00 PM Ernest W. Spangler Stadium · Boiling Springs, NC Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Gardner-Webb and North Carolina Central split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2017
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 2 ranks apart
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #191 run defense
Pass game edge North Carolina Central Eagles 124 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #167 pass defense
Run game even 10 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #135 rush offense North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game even 8 ranks apart
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs #95 pass offense North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
North Carolina Central Eagles Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs Balanced · 58% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL Zarion Walters 17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL #12 DL
DB Joshua Truesdale 19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #88 DB
RB Plez Lawrence 264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #92 RB
DB Jakarri Martin II 9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #231 DB
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
LB Tre Yanez 31 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #11 LB
DB Jamarion Ravenell 14 tkl · 2 PD #30 DB
WR Kory Jones 18 rec · 288 yds #58 WR
DB Sabin McLaughlin 13 tkl · 1 PD #133 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Carolina Central Eagles -11.9 -5.0 -6.9 #318
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs -4.1 -2.2 -1.9 #231

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Carolina Central offense vs Gardner-Webb defense-3.1 pts
Gardner-Webb offense vs North Carolina Central defense+4.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.9

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).