← Matchups

VMI

· 0-3 · power -22.1 · #384
Our numberDAV -5.6 no book has priced this game

Davidson

· 1-2 · power -20.9 · #381
Our side
MoneylineDAV to win ours 62%
Projected score 24–30 VMI – DAV
2026-09-19 · 1:00 PM Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) · Davidson, NC Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series VMI lead 39–16–3 · 58 meetings since 1904
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 5 ranks apart
VMI Keydets #256 rush offense Davidson Wildcats #261 run defense
Pass game even 15 ranks apart
VMI Keydets #188 pass offense Davidson Wildcats #203 pass defense
Run game edge VMI Keydets 83 ranks
Davidson Wildcats #247 rush offense VMI Keydets #164 run defense
Pass game edge Davidson Wildcats 112 ranks
Davidson Wildcats #145 pass offense VMI Keydets #257 pass defense
VMI Keydets Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Davidson Wildcats Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
VMI Keydets
DB Nic Land 22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #74 DB
DB Robert Powell 13 tkl · 2 PD #345 DB
DB EJ Wilborne 12 tkl · 1 INT #522 DB
DB Anthony Allen 10 tkl #876 DB
Davidson Wildcats
WR Jacary Lightsey 24 rec · 233 yds · 1 TD #50 WR
DL Danzel Chukwuemeka 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #200 DL
DL Jarmal Gilmore 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #223 DL
TE Jack Perozek 7 rec · 62 yds · 1 TD #51 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
VMI Keydets -22.1 -14.8 -7.3 #384
Davidson Wildcats -20.9 -8.4 -12.5 #381

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
VMI offense vs Davidson defense-2.2 pts
Davidson offense vs VMI defense-1.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.1

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).