Our side
MoneylineDAV to win
ours 62%
Projected score
24–30
VMI – DAV
2026-09-19 · 1:00 PM
Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) · Davidson, NC
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
VMI lead
39–16–3
· 58 meetings since 1904
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
5 ranks apart
VMI Keydets #256 rush offense
Davidson Wildcats #261 run defense
Pass game
even
15 ranks apart
VMI Keydets #188 pass offense
Davidson Wildcats #203 pass defense
Run game
edge VMI Keydets
83 ranks
Davidson Wildcats #247 rush offense
VMI Keydets #164 run defense
Pass game
edge Davidson Wildcats
112 ranks
Davidson Wildcats #145 pass offense
VMI Keydets #257 pass defense
VMI Keydets
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Davidson Wildcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
VMI Keydets
DB
Nic Land
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#74 DB
DB
Robert Powell
13 tkl · 2 PD
#345 DB
DB
EJ Wilborne
12 tkl · 1 INT
#522 DB
DB
Anthony Allen
10 tkl
#876 DB
Davidson Wildcats
WR
Jacary Lightsey
24 rec · 233 yds · 1 TD
#50 WR
DL
Danzel Chukwuemeka
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#200 DL
DL
Jarmal Gilmore
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#223 DL
TE
Jack Perozek
7 rec · 62 yds · 1 TD
#51 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
VMI offense vs Davidson defense-2.2 pts
Davidson offense vs VMI defense-1.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).