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Stephen F. Austin

· 3-0 (2-0) · power +12.7 · #71
Our numberSFA -18.4 no book has priced this game

Prairie View A&M

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -5.1 · #245
Our side
MoneylineSFA to win ours 15%
Projected score 37–19 SFA – PV
2026-09-19 · 8:00 PM Panther Stadium · Prairie View, TX Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Prairie View A&M lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 3 ranks apart
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense Prairie View A&M Panthers #42 run defense
Pass game edge Prairie View A&M Panthers 46 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense Prairie View A&M Panthers #19 pass defense
Run game edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 50 ranks
Prairie View A&M Panthers #58 rush offense Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game even 25 ranks apart
Prairie View A&M Panthers #53 pass offense Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Balanced · 49% run Ball-control Prairie View A&M Panthers Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 42 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB Makai Frisby 8 tkl · 3 INT #48 DB
K Carlos Alvarado 6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts #9 K
DB Jaiydyn Johnson 13 tkl · 3 PD #66 DB
WR Bugs Mortimer 8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD #84 WR
Prairie View A&M Panthers
DB Kamrin Canterbury 27 tkl · 2 PD #36 DB
DB Malachi Williams 11 tkl · 1 INT #102 DB
DB Nahamani Harris 21 tkl · 2 PD #123 DB
DL Malik Gucake 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #154 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks +12.7 +6.0 +6.7 #71
Prairie View A&M Panthers -5.1 -1.9 -3.2 #245

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Stephen F. Austin offense vs Prairie View A&M defense+9.2 pts
Prairie View A&M offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-8.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment-15.6

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).