Our side
MoneylineWIU to win
ours 67%
Projected score
28–37
MORE – WIU
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM
Hanson Field · Macomb, IL
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Western Illinois lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2006
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
35 ranks apart
Morehead State Eagles #250 rush offense
Western Illinois Leathernecks #215 run defense
Pass game
edge Morehead State Eagles
108 ranks
Morehead State Eagles #94 pass offense
Western Illinois Leathernecks #202 pass defense
Run game
edge Western Illinois Leathernecks
81 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #182 rush offense
Morehead State Eagles #263 run defense
Pass game
edge Morehead State Eagles
62 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #240 pass offense
Morehead State Eagles #178 pass defense
Morehead State Eagles
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Western Illinois Leathernecks
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Morehead State Eagles
DB
Tazion McQueen
10 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#96 DB
DB
Sidney Webb
4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#125 DB
DB
Isaiah Watts
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#148 DB
WR
Cross Watson
4 rec · 132 yds · 3 TD
#207 WR
Western Illinois Leathernecks
LB
Nick Reinicke
18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#57 LB
DB
Aa'zoriyon Bonner
9 tkl · 1 PD
#170 DB
DB
Jouvenson Romulus
9 tkl · 1 INT
#376 DB
DB
Brayden Hapner
8 tkl · 2 PD
#458 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Morehead State offense vs Western Illinois defense+6.1 pts
Western Illinois offense vs Morehead State defense+11.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment+8.2
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 418 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.