Our side
MoneylineTAR to win
ours 94%
Projected score
12–41
MRMK – TAR
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM
Tarleton Memorial Stadium · Stephenville, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
11 ranks apart
Merrimack Warriors #99 rush offense
Tarleton State Texans #88 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
209 ranks
Merrimack Warriors #233 pass offense
Tarleton State Texans #24 pass defense
Run game
edge Tarleton State Texans
85 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #64 rush offense
Merrimack Warriors #149 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
172 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #11 pass offense
Merrimack Warriors #183 pass defense
Merrimack Warriors
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg
Tarleton State Texans
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Merrimack Warriors
DB
Danny Simms
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#27 DB
DB
Bertin Placide
7 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#218 DB
DL
Dwayne Green Jr
9 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#317 DL
DB
Juice Ricks
4 tkl · 1 INT
#303 DB
Tarleton State Texans
RB
Tylan Hines
575 rush yds · 4 TD · 6 rec
#3 RB
WR
Marquis Willis
19 rec · 320 yds · 3 TD
#11 WR
DB
Fredd Adams
21 tkl · 5 PD
#25 DB
P
Charlie Mullen
7 punts · 44.7 yd avg
#4 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Merrimack offense vs Tarleton State defense-14.8 pts
Tarleton State offense vs Merrimack defense+9.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+28.1
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,643 mi
Altitude · context only334 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.