Our side
MoneylineVILL to win
ours 24%
Projected score
32–20
VILL – LIU
2026-09-19 · 12:00 PM
Shark Stadium · Brookville, NY
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Villanova lead
3–0
· 3 meetings since 2019
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
18 ranks apart
Villanova Wildcats #54 rush offense
Long Island University Sharks #72 run defense
Pass game
edge Long Island University Sharks
65 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #82 pass offense
Long Island University Sharks #17 pass defense
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
130 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #169 rush offense
Villanova Wildcats #39 run defense
Pass game
edge Villanova Wildcats
186 ranks
Long Island University Sharks #241 pass offense
Villanova Wildcats #55 pass defense
Villanova Wildcats
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Long Island University Sharks
Run-heavy · 69% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Villanova Wildcats
LB
Omari Bursey
34 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#9 LB
DL
Ugo Nwotite
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#82 DL
DL
Ratu Delano Navoti
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#137 DL
DB
Jamie Tyson
17 tkl · 1 INT
#166 DB
Long Island University Sharks
LB
Rafael Fasolino
25 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#23 LB
DB
Ryan Maxwell
21 tkl · 2 PD
#57 DB
DL
Rodney Mills
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#145 DL
DL
Quay Wright
3 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#343 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Villanova offense vs Long Island University defense+1.3 pts
Long Island University offense vs Villanova defense-9.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).