Our side
MoneylineNAU to win
ours 29%
Projected score
33–23
NAU – UTU
2026-09-19 · 8:00 PM
Greater Zion Stadium · Saint George, UT
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Arizona lead
3–1
· 4 meetings since 2006
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
85 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Utah Tech Trailblazers #214 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
78 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Utah Tech Trailblazers #154 pass defense
Run game
edge Utah Tech Trailblazers
78 ranks
Utah Tech Trailblazers #174 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
49 ranks
Utah Tech Trailblazers #230 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Utah Tech Trailblazers
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Utah Tech Trailblazers
DB
Jeremiah Jimoh
19 tkl · 3 PD
#40 DB
DB
Quincy Lejay
22 tkl · 1 PD
#45 DB
P
Ryan Marks
17 punts · 46.3 yd avg
#7 P
DB
Brevin Czosnyka
17 tkl
#314 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Arizona offense vs Utah Tech defense+5.4 pts
Utah Tech offense vs Northern Arizona defense-5.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.0
Altitude · context only1,248 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.