← Matchups

Northern Arizona

· 2-1 (1-0) · power +0.2 · #171
Our numberNAU -9.8 no book has priced this game

Utah Tech

· 0-3 · power -10.2 · #297
Our side
MoneylineNAU to win ours 29%
Projected score 33–23 NAU – UTU
2026-09-19 · 8:00 PM Greater Zion Stadium · Saint George, UT Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Northern Arizona lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 2006
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 85 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense Utah Tech Trailblazers #214 run defense
Pass game edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 78 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense Utah Tech Trailblazers #154 pass defense
Run game edge Utah Tech Trailblazers 78 ranks
Utah Tech Trailblazers #174 rush offense Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 49 ranks
Utah Tech Trailblazers #230 pass offense Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Balanced · 53% run Avg pace Utah Tech Trailblazers Balanced · 55% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB Deliyon Freeman 23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #33 DB
DB Jahaad Fort 16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #43 DB
DB Shoes Brinkley 27 tkl · 1 PD #60 DB
LB Jaiden Letua 25 tkl · 1.0 TFL #43 LB
Utah Tech Trailblazers
DB Jeremiah Jimoh 19 tkl · 3 PD #40 DB
DB Quincy Lejay 22 tkl · 1 PD #45 DB
P Ryan Marks 17 punts · 46.3 yd avg #7 P
DB Brevin Czosnyka 17 tkl #314 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +0.2 +1.8 -1.6 #171
Utah Tech Trailblazers -10.2 -6.6 -3.6 #297

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Northern Arizona offense vs Utah Tech defense+5.4 pts
Utah Tech offense vs Northern Arizona defense-5.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.0
Altitude · context only1,248 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.