← Matchups

Tennessee State

· 0-3 · power -19.1 · #371
Our numberFAMU -7.9 no book has priced this game

Florida A&M

· 1-2 · power -13.1 · #330
Our side
MoneylineFAMU to win ours 67%
Projected score 20–28 TNST – FAMU
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM Bragg Memorial Stadium · Tallahassee, FL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida A&M lead 9–6 · 15 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 37 ranks apart
Tennessee State Tigers #265 rush offense Florida A&M Rattlers #228 run defense
Pass game even 13 ranks apart
Tennessee State Tigers #255 pass offense Florida A&M Rattlers #242 pass defense
Run game edge Tennessee State Tigers 62 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #173 rush offense Tennessee State Tigers #111 run defense
Pass game edge Tennessee State Tigers 50 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #142 pass offense Tennessee State Tigers #92 pass defense
Tennessee State Tigers Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Florida A&M Rattlers Balanced · 56% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tennessee State Tigers
DB Brendan Hale 21 tkl · 2 PD #93 DB
DL Bryce Gray 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #244 DL
WR Jayden Guy 15 rec · 202 yds #212 WR
P Truette Tumey 15 punts · 43.7 yd avg #32 P
Florida A&M Rattlers
DB Justin Bostic 10 tkl · 2 INT #44 DB
LB Denzel Johnson 14 tkl #218 LB
P Bobby Engstler 25 punts · 40.0 yd avg #39 P
DB Caleb McKenzie 4 tkl #687 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tennessee State Tigers -19.1 -16.0 -3.0 #371
Florida A&M Rattlers -13.1 -6.9 -6.2 #330

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tennessee State offense vs Florida A&M defense-9.8 pts
Florida A&M offense vs Tennessee State defense-3.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+9.0
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 422 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.