Our side
MoneylineACU to win
ours 50%
Projected score
28–28
ACU – IDHO
2026-09-19 · 4:00 PM
Kibbie Dome · Moscow, ID
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Idaho lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
5 ranks apart
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense
Idaho Vandals #93 run defense
Pass game
edge Abilene Christian Wildcats
61 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense
Idaho Vandals #214 pass defense
Run game
edge Idaho Vandals
90 ranks
Idaho Vandals #41 rush offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game
even
36 ranks apart
Idaho Vandals #93 pass offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Idaho Vandals
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 59 rush ypg
Paul Petrino · 17-20 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB
Dillon Williams
29 tkl · 1 PD
#9 DB
DB
Javeon Wilcox
27 tkl · 1 INT
#37 DB
DL
Hudson Page
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#76 DL
WR
Cristian Driver
18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD
#46 WR
Idaho Vandals
WR
Tony Harste
13 rec · 233 yds · 2 TD
#67 WR
DB
Khaled Rawls
20 tkl · 1 PD
#172 DB
LB
Cruz Hepburn
24 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#107 LB
LB
Ryder Bordner
17 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#160 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Abilene Christian offense vs Idaho defense+0.8 pts
Idaho offense vs Abilene Christian defense-2.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.3
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,343 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.