Our side
MoneylineUNA to win
ours 73%
Projected score
24–35
ALCN – UNA
2026-09-19 · 7:00 PM
Braly Stadium · Florence, AL
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Alcorn State Braves
92 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #103 rush offense
North Alabama Lions #195 run defense
Pass game
edge Alcorn State Braves
65 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #195 pass offense
North Alabama Lions #260 pass defense
Run game
edge Alcorn State Braves
60 ranks
North Alabama Lions #125 rush offense
Alcorn State Braves #65 run defense
Pass game
edge Alcorn State Braves
183 ranks
North Alabama Lions #210 pass offense
Alcorn State Braves #27 pass defense
Alcorn State Braves
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
North Alabama Lions
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Alcorn State Braves
DB
Timothy Jasper
31 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#17 DB
WR
Tyree Kelly
11 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD
#100 WR
DL
Eric Thomas
6 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#189 DL
RB
Ernest Temple
187 rush yds · 2 TD · 7 rec
#78 RB
North Alabama Lions
DB
Tae Martin
23 tkl · 4 PD
#11 DB
DL
Avery Howard
17 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#20 DL
WR
Xavier Johnson
19 rec · 386 yds · 2 TD
#14 WR
DL
Cayden Adkins
11 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#29 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alcorn State offense vs North Alabama defense-0.3 pts
North Alabama offense vs Alcorn State defense+7.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.6
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).