Our side
MoneylineNORF to win
ours 86%
Projected score
18–37
HAMP – NORF
2026-09-19 · 4:00 PM
William "Dick" Price Stadium · Norfolk, VA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Hampton lead
11–8
· 19 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Norfolk State Spartans
82 ranks
Hampton Pirates #218 rush offense
Norfolk State Spartans #136 run defense
Pass game
edge Norfolk State Spartans
46 ranks
Hampton Pirates #231 pass offense
Norfolk State Spartans #185 pass defense
Run game
edge Norfolk State Spartans
161 ranks
Norfolk State Spartans #95 rush offense
Hampton Pirates #256 run defense
Pass game
even
44 ranks apart
Norfolk State Spartans #164 pass offense
Hampton Pirates #208 pass defense
Hampton Pirates
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Norfolk State Spartans
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Hampton Pirates
DB
Cam Sturdifen
27 tkl
#143 DB
DB
Caden Rice
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#154 DB
DL
Korede Sogbesan
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#333 DL
DB
Qwae Willis
16 tkl · 1 PD
#410 DB
Norfolk State Spartans
DB
Josiah Davis
6 tkl · 2 INT
#61 DB
DB
Jordan Saunders
20 tkl · 1 INT
#121 DB
LB
Brendan Thompson
23 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#141 LB
DL
Eugene Allen IV
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#330 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Hampton offense vs Norfolk State defense-8.8 pts
Norfolk State offense vs Hampton defense+7.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+19.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).