← Matchups

Valparaiso

· 1-1 · power -18.3 · #367
Our numberINST -12.1 no book has priced this game

Indiana State

· 1-2 · power -9.4 · #288
Our side
MoneylineINST to win ours 75%
Projected score 24–36 VAL – INST
2026-09-19 · 1:00 PM Memorial Stadium (Terre Haute, IN) · Terre Haute, IN Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 6 ranks apart
Valparaiso Beacons #252 rush offense Indiana State Sycamores #258 run defense
Pass game edge Valparaiso Beacons 52 ranks
Valparaiso Beacons #197 pass offense Indiana State Sycamores #249 pass defense
Run game even 34 ranks apart
Indiana State Sycamores #221 rush offense Valparaiso Beacons #187 run defense
Pass game edge Indiana State Sycamores 63 ranks
Indiana State Sycamores #166 pass offense Valparaiso Beacons #229 pass defense
Valparaiso Beacons Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control Indiana State Sycamores Balanced · 54% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Valparaiso Beacons
LB Max Samuel 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #125 LB
DB O.C. Nurse 9 tkl · 1 PD #696 DB
WR Chris Gundy 5 rec · 107 yds #454 WR
DL Gabriel Batres 4 tkl · 1.0 TFL #900 DL
Indiana State Sycamores
DL Kaleb Harris 12 tkl · 3.5 TFL #65 DL
DB Nic Yatsko 25 tkl · 2 PD #83 DB
WR BJ Wuest 11 rec · 226 yds · 1 TD #156 WR
WR Keshon Singleton 12 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD #167 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Valparaiso Beacons -18.3 -7.7 -10.6 #367
Indiana State Sycamores -9.4 -2.5 -6.9 #288

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Valparaiso offense vs Indiana State defense-0.8 pts
Indiana State offense vs Valparaiso defense+8.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.