Our side
MoneylineTOW to win
ours 58%
Projected score
24–28
MORG – TOW
2026-09-19 · 6:00 PM
Johnny Unitas Stadium · Towson, MD
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Towson lead
12–2
· 14 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
19 ranks apart
Morgan State Bears #164 rush offense
Towson Tigers #183 run defense
Pass game
edge Towson Tigers
67 ranks
Morgan State Bears #226 pass offense
Towson Tigers #159 pass defense
Run game
edge Morgan State Bears
126 ranks
Towson Tigers #239 rush offense
Morgan State Bears #113 run defense
Pass game
edge Towson Tigers
79 ranks
Towson Tigers #51 pass offense
Morgan State Bears #130 pass defense
Morgan State Bears
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Towson Tigers
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Morgan State Bears
DL
Donovan Moyer
11 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#70 DL
DB
Josiah Blake
11 tkl · 1 PD
#145 DB
WR
Justin Perry
13 rec · 188 yds · 2 TD
#231 WR
RB
Jordan Barnett
173 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#165 RB
Towson Tigers
WR
Aaron Enterline
16 rec · 214 yds · 3 TD
#23 WR
DB
Bryan Lodge
14 tkl · 1 PD
#263 DB
LB
Jaydyn Johnson
24 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#165 LB
DB
Marquis Cooper
8 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#280 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Morgan State offense vs Towson defense-5.7 pts
Towson offense vs Morgan State defense-2.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+5.9
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).