● Top projected winners
record starts at kickoff
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
USC
-17.7 · 83%
over San José State
North Dakota State
-14.9 · 79%
over Jacksonville State
Florida State
-12.8 · 75%
over New Mexico State
TCU
-8.8 · 68%
over North Carolina
Virginia
-4.6 · 60%
over NC State
Sacramento State
-3.3 · 57%
over Eastern Michigan
UNLV
-0.9 · 52%
over Memphis
Stanford
-0.3 · 51%
over Hawai'i
| Kickoff | Matchup | Div | Our lean | Our projection | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-293:30 PM | ● NC State @ Virginia Charlottesville, VA | FBS FBS | Virginia 60% | 26–31 · 57.7 | -5.5 · 54.5 |
| 2026-08-2912:00 PM | ● North Carolina @ TCU Dublin · neutral | FBS FBS | TCU 68% | 22–30 · 52.0 | -6.5 · 49.5 |
| 2026-08-293:00 PM | ● San José State @ USC Los Angeles, CA | FBS FBS | USC 83% | 23–40 · 63.0 | -35.5 · 57.5 |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | ● Hawai'i @ Stanford Stanford, CA | FBS FBS | Stanford 51% | 27–27 · 54.1 | -3.5 · 50.5 |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | ● New Mexico State @ Florida State Tallahassee, FL | FBS FBS | Florida State 75% | 21–34 · 55.0 | -30.5 · 53.5 |
| 2026-08-2910:00 PM | Memphis @ UNLV Las Vegas, NV | FBS FBS | UNLV 52% | 31–32 · 63.6 | -3.5 · 59.5 |
| 2026-08-295:30 PM | Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State Fargo, ND | FBS FCS | North Dakota State 79% | 22–37 · 58.2 | -8.5 · 48.5 |
| 2026-08-296:30 PM | Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan Ypsilanti, MI | FCS FBS | Sacramento State 57% | 33–30 · 63.4 | -8.0 · 52.5 |
| 2026-08-299:00 PM | Southern Utah @ Montana Missoula, MT | FCS FCS | Montana 65% | 31–38 · 68.4 | — |
| 2026-08-299:00 PM | Prairie View A&M @ Tarleton State Stephenville, TX | FCS FCS | Tarleton State 75% | 24–36 · 59.4 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Monmouth @ Tennessee Tech Cookeville, TN | FCS FCS | Tennessee Tech 58% | 32–36 · 68.4 | — |
| 2026-08-278:00 PM | Long Island University @ North Dakota Grand Forks, ND | FCS FCS | North Dakota 78% | 16–30 · 46.7 | — |
| 2026-08-2910:00 PM | Montana State @ Utah Tech Saint George, UT | FCS FCS | Montana State 81% | 34–18 · 52.8 | — |
| 2026-08-293:30 PM | Lehigh @ Holy Cross Worcester, MA | FCS FCS | Lehigh 64% | 28–21 · 48.7 | — |
| 2026-08-292:00 PM | Central Connecticut @ South Dakota Vermillion, SD | FCS FCS | South Dakota 67% | 24–33 · 57.5 | — |
| 2026-08-29TBD | Abilene Christian @ Lamar Beaumont, TX | FCS FCS | Abilene Christian 52% | 27–26 · 53.2 | — |
| 2026-08-286:00 PM | William & Mary @ Villanova Philadelphia, PA | FCS FCS | Villanova 66% | 24–32 · 56.7 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Stephen F. Austin @ McNeese Lake Charles, LA | FCS FCS | Stephen F. Austin 66% | 31–23 · 54.1 | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Gardner-Webb @ Austin Peay Clarksville, TN | FCS FCS | Austin Peay 65% | 29–36 · 65.0 | — |
| 2026-08-2810:00 PM | Idaho @ Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, CA | FCS FCS | Cal Poly 56% | 27–30 · 56.1 | — |
| 2026-08-276:00 PM | Mercyhurst @ Youngstown State Youngstown, OH | FCS FCS | Youngstown State 70% | 26–36 · 62.4 | — |
| 2026-08-295:00 PM | Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona Flagstaff, AZ | FCS FCS | Northern Arizona 59% | 29–33 · 61.9 | — |
| 2026-08-28TBD | Rhode Island @ Merrimack North Andover, MA | FCS FCS | Rhode Island 62% | 29–24 · 52.4 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | East Texas A&M @ Mercer Macon, GA | FCS FCS | Mercer 73% | 29–41 · 69.7 | — |
| 2026-08-276:00 PM | Stony Brook @ Delaware State Dover, DE | FCS FCS | Delaware State 54% | 29–31 · 59.6 | — |
| 2026-08-293:00 PM | UC Davis @ Portland State Portland, OR | FCS FCS | UC Davis 72% | 37–26 · 63.8 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Eastern Kentucky @ Western Carolina Cullowhee, NC | FCS FCS | Western Carolina 58% | 29–33 · 61.9 | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Chattanooga @ West Georgia Carrollton, GA | FCS FCS | West Georgia 67% | 24–32 · 55.8 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | The Citadel @ Wofford Spartanburg, SC | FCS FCS | Wofford 59% | 19–23 · 42.2 | — |
| 2026-08-276:00 PM | Maine @ Towson Towson, MD | FCS FCS | Towson 55% | 25–27 · 52.3 | — |
| 2026-08-295:30 PM | Campbell @ East Tennessee State Johnson City, TN | FCS FCS | East Tennessee State 70% | 27–37 · 63.9 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | North Carolina Central @ Texas Southern Houston, TX | FCS FCS | North Carolina Central 60% | 31–26 · 56.7 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Stetson @ South Dakota State Brookings, SD | FCS FCS | South Dakota State 87% | 18–39 · 57.6 | — |
| 2026-08-277:30 PM | Central Arkansas @ UT Martin Martin, TN | FCS FCS | UT Martin 53% | 27–29 · 56.4 | — |
| 2026-08-287:00 PM | New Hampshire @ UAlbany Albany, NY | FCS FCS | New Hampshire 64% | 29–22 · 50.7 | — |
| 2026-08-299:00 PM | Weber State @ Northern Colorado Greeley, CO | FCS FCS | Northern Colorado 55% | 27–30 · 56.8 | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana Hammond, LA | FCS FCS | SE Louisiana 79% | 19–34 · 52.2 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Lafayette @ Georgetown Washington, DC | FCS FCS | Lafayette 56% | 32–29 · 61.5 | — |
| 2026-08-293:00 PM | Southern @ Alabama State Birmingham, AL · neutral | FCS FCS | Alabama State 81% | 22–38 · 60.2 | — |
| 2026-08-298:30 PM | Jackson State @ Tennessee State Nashville, TN | FCS FCS | Jackson State 70% | 29–19 · 48.0 | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Charleston Southern @ Lindenwood Saint Charles, MO | FCS FCS | Lindenwood 60% | 22–27 · 48.9 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | Southeast Missouri State @ Indiana State Terre Haute, IN | FCS FCS | Indiana State 58% | 28–32 · 59.6 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | VMI @ Idaho State Pocatello, ID | FCS FCS | Idaho State 80% | 22–37 · 58.9 | — |
| 2026-08-286:00 PM | Marist @ New Haven West Haven, CT | FCS FCS | New Haven 53% | 28–29 · 56.5 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | Bucknell @ Richmond Richmond, VA | FCS FCS | Richmond 66% | 26–33 · 58.5 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | Colgate @ Fordham Bronx, NY | FCS FCS | Colgate 59% | 31–27 · 57.7 | — |
| 2026-08-297:30 PM | Alabama A&M @ Howard Atlanta, GA · neutral | FCS FCS | Howard 53% | 25–27 · 52.4 | — |
| 2026-08-29TBD | Robert Morris @ Wagner Staten Island, NY | FCS FCS | Wagner 54% | 22–24 · 46.3 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Samford @ North Alabama Huntsville, AL · neutral | FCS FCS | North Alabama 63% | 26–32 · 58.8 | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Eastern Illinois @ Murray State Murray, KY | FCS FCS | Murray State 52% | 28–28 · 56.3 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | Bryant @ Stonehill North Easton, MA | FCS FCS | Stonehill 57% | 23–27 · 50.0 | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Mississippi Valley State @ Nicholls Thibodaux, LA | FCS FCS | Nicholls 71% | 22–32 · 53.9 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | Morgan State @ North Carolina A&T Greensboro, NC | FCS FCS | Morgan State 60% | 33–28 · 61.0 | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Southern Illinois @ West Florida Pensacola, FL | FCS NON-D1 | Southern Illinois 52% | 32–31 · 63.8 | — |
| 2026-08-298:00 PM | UT Permian Basin @ UT Rio Grande Valley Edinburg, TX | NON-D1 FCS | UT Rio Grande Valley 57% | 29–32 · 61.3 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | Savannah State @ South Carolina State Orangeburg, SC | NON-D1 FCS | South Carolina State 75% | 24–37 · 60.7 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Miles College @ Alcorn State Lorman, MS | NON-D1 FCS | Alcorn State 61% | 22–27 · 48.7 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Albany State @ Florida A&M Tallahassee, FL | NON-D1 FCS | Albany State 54% | 31–29 · 60.0 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Morehouse College Maroon @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff Little Rock, AR · neutral | NON-D1 FCS | Arkansas-Pine Bluff 56% | 28–31 · 58.8 | — |
| 2026-08-278:00 PM | Louisiana Christian University @ Northwestern State Natchitoches, LA | NON-D1 FCS | Louisiana Christian University 50% | 31–31 · 62.7 | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | Virginia Lynchburg @ Hampton Hampton, VA | NON-D1 FCS | Hampton 67% | 27–35 · 62.6 | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | St. Francis (IL) @ Illinois State Normal, IL | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | UVA Wise @ Presbyterian Clinton, SC | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Winona State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota Saint Paul, MN | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-277:30 PM | South Dakota Mines @ Drake Des Moines, IA | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-2912:00 PM | Fairmont State @ Dayton Dayton, OH | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Glenville State @ Elon Elon, NC | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-291:00 PM | Georgetown (KY) @ Butler Indianapolis, IN | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Clark Atlanta @ Grambling Grambling, LA | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-297:00 PM | Anderson (SC) @ Furman Greenville, SC | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-27TBD | Ohio Dominican @ Morehead State Morehead, KY | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Northwestern (IA) @ Western Illinois Macomb, IL | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-296:00 PM | Winston-Salem @ Norfolk State Norfolk, VA | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-291:00 PM | Lawrence Tech @ Valparaiso Valparaiso, IN | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-277:00 PM | Concord @ Davidson Davidson, NC | NON-D1 FCS | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29TBD | Roosevelt @ Chicago State Bridgeview, IL | NON-D1 NON-D1 | — | — | — |
Every row links to its full breakdown.