BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

On the board
0 priced of 77
Median gap
—
Straight up
104–32
Model state
—
Wk 0 Wk 1 Wk 2 Wk 3 Wk 4 Wk 5 Wk 6 Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15
● Top projected winners 76% · 104-32 this season

The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.

Top projected winners ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Eastern Michigan
-13.9 · 80%
over Sacramento State
L 17–28
North Dakota State
-10.5 · 74%
over Jacksonville State
W 7–33
Virginia
-10.4 · 74%
over NC State
W 8–34
TCU
-3.9 · 60%
over North Carolina
L 15–10
Stanford
-3.7 · 59%
over Hawai'i
W 27–37
Memphis
-3.3 · 58%
over UNLV
L 27–21
Top spread reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence

No game on this slate has a book spread to compare against yet.

Top total reads ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line

No game on this slate has a book total to compare against yet.

Top team totals our projected score against the book’s team total · 6 games priced this week
Florida State
Under 42.5 · book 51%
ours 36.5 · vs New Mexico State
W 17–34
UNLV
Over 30.5 · book 51%
ours 25.4 · vs Memphis
L 27–21
Hawai'i
Over 22.5 · book 50%
ours 24.9 · vs Stanford
W 27–37
Memphis
Over 26.5 · book 49%
ours 28.7 · vs UNLV
W 27–21
New Mexico State
Over 10.5 · book 46%
ours 18.2 · vs Florida State
W 17–34
NC State
Under 23.5
ours 22.7 · vs Virginia
FINAL 8–34no pick logged — kicked before we priced it
Virginia
Over 27.5
ours 33.1 · vs NC State
FINAL 8–34no pick logged — kicked before we priced it
North Carolina
Over 18.5
ours 21.5 · vs TCU
FINAL 15–10no pick logged — kicked before we priced it
All games 77 Sheet Panels All games
KickoffMatchupDivOur side Our projectionMarket Best number (tap to add)
2026-08-276:00 PM L 21–18 Maine @ Towson Towson, MD FCS TOW to winTOW 61% 24–28 · 51.8 — no line
2026-08-276:00 PM W 34–41 Stony Brook @ Delaware State Dover, DE FCS DSU to winDSU 63% 26–32 · 58.1 — no line
2026-08-276:00 PM W 10–43 Mercyhurst @ Youngstown State Youngstown, OH FCS YSU to winYSU 92% 20–43 · 62.8 — no line
2026-08-276:00 PM W 42–40 Ohio Dominican @ Morehead State Morehead, KY NON-D1 FCS OHIO to winOHIO 70% 36–28 · 64.0 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM W 7–42 Glenville State @ Elon Elon, NC NON-D1 FCS ELON to winELON 77% 20–32 · 51.6 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM L 28–14 Eastern Illinois @ Murray State Murray, KY FCS MUR to winEIU 60% 30–26 · 55.2 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM Lafayette @ Georgetown Washington, DC FCS LAF to winLAF 63% 31–26 · 56.5 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM W 17–35 Gardner-Webb @ Austin Peay Clarksville, TN FCS APSU to winAPSU 79% 22–34 · 56.0 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM W 17–20 Charleston Southern @ Lindenwood Saint Charles, MO FCS LIN to winLIN 56% 23–25 · 48.1 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM L 14–65 Northwestern (IA) @ Western Illinois Macomb, IL NON-D1 FCS NORT to winWIU 63% 29–34 · 62.8 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM L 24–10 Chattanooga @ West Georgia Carrollton, GA FCS WGA to winUTC 57% 26–23 · 49.0 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM W 37–47 UVA Wise @ Presbyterian Clinton, SC NON-D1 FCS PRES to winPRES 51% 31–32 · 63.2 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM W 9–15 Winona State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota Saint Paul, MN NON-D1 FCS STMN to winSTMN 58% 24–28 · 52.1 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM L 34–28 Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana Hammond, LA FCS SELA to winSELA 73% 23–33 · 55.6 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM L 3–20 Anderson (SC) @ Furman Greenville, SC NON-D1 FCS ANDE to winFUR 69% 20–28 · 47.0 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM W 10–44 Mississippi Valley State @ Nicholls Thibodaux, LA FCS NICH to winNICH 95% 15–41 · 55.4 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM L 31–34 Southern Illinois @ West Florida Pensacola, FL FCS NON-D1 SIU to winWEST 61% 27–32 · 58.7 — no line
2026-08-277:00 PM W 41–35 Concord @ Davidson Davidson, NC NON-D1 FCS CONC to winCONC 81% 38–24 · 61.1 — no line
2026-08-277:30 PM L 36–24 Central Arkansas @ UT Martin Martin, TN FCS UTM to winCARK 52% 29–28 · 57.7 — no line
2026-08-277:30 PM L 38–35 South Dakota Mines @ Drake Des Moines, IA NON-D1 FCS DRKE to winSOUT 67% 34–26 · 59.7 — no line
2026-08-278:00 PM W 21–42 Long Island University @ North Dakota Grand Forks, ND FCS UND to winUND 97% 13–44 · 57.5 — no line
2026-08-278:00 PM L 42–37 Louisiana Christian @ Northwestern State Natchitoches, LA NON-D1 FCS NWST to winLOUI 54% 34–32 · 66.4 — no line
2026-08-286:00 PM W 34–7 Rhode Island @ Merrimack North Andover, MA FCS URI to winURI 85% 33–16 · 49.5 — no line
2026-08-286:00 PM W 24–14 Colgate @ Fordham Bronx, NY FCS COLG to winCOLG 74% 30–20 · 49.4 — no line
2026-08-286:00 PM L 35–32 William & Mary @ Villanova Philadelphia, PA FCS VILL to winVILL 60% 26–31 · 56.8 — no line
2026-08-286:00 PM W 21–22 Marist @ New Haven West Haven, CT FCS NHVN to winMRST 62% 27–22 · 48.9 — no line
2026-08-287:00 PM L 14–28 New Hampshire @ UAlbany Albany, NY FCS UNH to winUALB 68% 24–31 · 54.8 — no line
2026-08-289:00 PM L 30–29 Weber State @ Northern Colorado Greeley, CO FCS UNCO to winWEB 52% 30–30 · 59.9 — no line
2026-08-2810:00 PM W 34–38 Idaho @ Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, CA FCS CP to winCP 52% 29–30 · 59.3 — no line
2026-08-2912:00 PM L 15–10 ● North Carolina @ TCU Dublin · neutral FBS TCU to winTCU 60% 22–26 · 47.0 —
2026-08-2912:00 PM L 28–7 Robert Morris @ Wagner Staten Island, NY FCS WAG to winRMU 65% 27–21 · 48.3 — no line
2026-08-2912:00 PM L 20–43 Fairmont State @ Dayton Dayton, OH NON-D1 FCS FAIR to winDAY 72% 23–32 · 55.4 — no line
2026-08-291:00 PM L 23–27 Georgetown (KY) @ Butler Indianapolis, IN NON-D1 FCS GEOR to winBUT 54% 27–29 · 55.8 — no line
2026-08-291:00 PM L 44–28 Roosevelt @ Chicago State Bridgeview, IL NON-D1 CHIC to winROOS 76% 36–24 · 60.4 — no line
2026-08-292:00 PM W 20–59 Central Connecticut @ South Dakota Vermillion, SD FCS SDAK to winSDAK 92% 21–43 · 64.3 — no line
2026-08-292:00 PM L 13–59 Lawrence Tech @ Valparaiso Valparaiso, IN NON-D1 FCS LAWR to winLAWR 51% 30–30 · 60.0 — no line
2026-08-293:00 PM W 26–42 ● San José State @ USC Los Angeles, CA FBS USC to winUSC 93% 18–42 · 60.5 —
2026-08-293:00 PM W 31–24 UC Davis @ Portland State Portland, OR FCS UCD to winUCD 87% 40–22 · 62.2 — no line
2026-08-293:00 PM L 30–17 Alabama State @ Southern Birmingham, AL · neutral FCS SOU to winALST 77% 34–22 · 55.2 — no line
2026-08-293:30 PM W 8–34 ● NC State @ Virginia Charlottesville, VA FBS UVA to winUVA 74% 23–33 · 55.8 —
2026-08-293:30 PM W 35–10 Lehigh @ Holy Cross Worcester, MA FCS LEH to winLEH 94% 38–14 · 51.7 — no line
2026-08-295:00 PM W 27–34 Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona Flagstaff, AZ FCS NAU to winNAU 65% 26–33 · 59.0 — no line
2026-08-295:30 PM W 7–33 Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State Fargo, ND FBS FCS NDSU to winNDSU 74% 22–33 · 55.2 —
2026-08-295:30 PM L 49–37 Campbell @ East Tennessee State Johnson City, TN FCS ETSU to winETSU 57% 30–33 · 62.4 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM W 0–45 Virginia Lynchburg @ Hampton Hampton, VA NON-D1 FCS HAMP to winHAMP 93% 16–40 · 56.4 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM W 17–7 Morgan State @ North Carolina A&T Greensboro, NC FCS MORG to winMORG 65% 30–23 · 53.0 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM L 24–6 Bryant @ Stonehill North Easton, MA FCS STO to winBRY 67% 27–20 · 47.7 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM L 23–21 Southeast Missouri State @ Indiana State Terre Haute, IN FCS INST to winINST 51% 28–28 · 56.3 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM L 0–56 Winston-Salem @ Norfolk State Norfolk, VA NON-D1 FCS WINS to winNORF 64% 26–31 · 57.2 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM W 0–87 Savannah State @ South Carolina State Orangeburg, SC NON-D1 FCS SCST to winSCST 97% 16–48 · 63.7 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM W 14–35 Bucknell @ Richmond Richmond, VA FCS RICH to winRICH 79% 20–33 · 52.3 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM W 10–38 VMI @ Idaho State Pocatello, ID FCS IDST to winIDST 98% 11–44 · 54.4 — no line
2026-08-296:00 PM W 14–42 The Citadel @ Wofford Spartanburg, SC FCS WOF to winWOF 78% 20–32 · 51.5 — no line
2026-08-296:30 PM L 17–28 Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan Ypsilanti, MI FCS FBS SAC to winEMU 80% 21–34 · 55.2 —
2026-08-297:00 PM W 27–37 ● Hawai'i @ Stanford Stanford, CA FBS STAN to winSTAN 59% 25–29 · 53.5 —
2026-08-297:00 PM W 17–34 ● New Mexico State @ Florida State Tallahassee, FL FBS FSU to winFSU 87% 18–36 · 54.7 —
2026-08-297:00 PM W 14–38 Monmouth @ Tennessee Tech Cookeville, TN FCS TNTC to winTNTC 85% 22–39 · 60.9 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM L 30–42 North Carolina Central @ Texas Southern Houston, TX FCS NCCU to winNCCU 62% 32–27 · 58.8 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM L 14–21 Abilene Christian @ Lamar Beaumont, TX FCS ACU to winLAM 51% 22–23 · 45.4 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 21–45 Eastern Kentucky @ Western Carolina Cullowhee, NC FCS WCU to winWCU 76% 24–36 · 59.3 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 10–22 Samford @ North Alabama Huntsville, AL · neutral FCS UNA to winUNA 73% 21–30 · 51.4 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 38–27 Stephen F. Austin @ McNeese Lake Charles, LA FCS SFA to winSFA 80% 34–20 · 53.8 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 15–35 Morehouse College Maroon @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff Little Rock, AR · neutral NON-D1 FCS UAPB to winUAPB 92% 20–42 · 62.0 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM L 7–20 Albany State @ Florida A&M Tallahassee, FL NON-D1 FCS ALBA to winFAMU 62% 23–28 · 51.4 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM L 7–49 Clark Atlanta @ Grambling Grambling, LA NON-D1 FCS CLAR to winGRAM 67% 25–33 · 58.0 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 7–70 Stetson @ South Dakota State Brookings, SD FCS SDST to winSDST 97% 16–46 · 61.6 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 15–23 East Texas A&M @ Mercer Macon, GA FCS MER to winMER 80% 21–34 · 54.9 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 0–76 St. Francis (IL) @ Illinois State Normal, IL NON-D1 FCS ILST to winILST 90% 20–41 · 60.4 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 7–56 Miles College @ Alcorn State Lorman, MS NON-D1 FCS ALCN to winALCN 87% 19–38 · 57.3 — no line
2026-08-297:00 PM W 14–76 Oklahoma Panhandle State OK PANHANDLE @ Incarnate Word San Antonio, TX NON-D1 FCS UIW to winUIW 77% 26–38 · 64.6 — no line
2026-08-297:30 PM L 31–24 Howard @ Alabama A&M Atlanta, GA · neutral FCS AAMU to winHOW 62% 30–25 · 54.3 — no line
2026-08-298:00 PM W 0–44 UT Permian Basin @ UT Rio Grande Valley Edinburg, TX NON-D1 FCS UT R to winUT R 77% 22–34 · 55.5 — no line
2026-08-298:30 PM W 26–24 Jackson State @ Tennessee State Nashville, TN FCS JKST to winJKST 73% 31–22 · 52.9 — no line
2026-08-299:00 PM W 21–28 Southern Utah @ Montana Missoula, MT FCS MONT to winMONT 79% 24–38 · 61.7 — no line
2026-08-299:00 PM W 30–49 Prairie View A&M @ Tarleton State Stephenville, TX FCS TAR to winTAR 87% 21–39 · 59.8 — no line
2026-08-2910:00 PM L 27–21 Memphis @ UNLV Las Vegas, NV FBS UNLV to winMEM 58% 29–25 · 54.1 —
2026-08-2910:00 PM W 54–0 Montana State @ Utah Tech Saint George, UT FCS MTST to winMTST 96% 42–13 · 55.3 — no line

Every row links to its full breakdown.