Southern Jaguars @ Alabama State Hornets
2026-08-29 · 3:00 PM
· Legion Field (AL) · Birmingham, AL
· neutral site
Alabama State -16.2
Projected spread
60.2
Projected total
22–38
Proj score (away–home)
81%
Alabama State win prob
Series
Southern lead
9–3
· 12 meetings since 2007
Southern Jaguars
Run-heavy · 65% run
Ball-control
Alabama State Hornets — defense
Alabama State Hornets — offense
Alabama State Hornets
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense), not individual players — per-player ratings wait on the 2026 rosters. Identity, tempo, dual-threat and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.
Power breakdown
| Team | Div | Power | Off | Def (higher = better) | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Jaguars | FCS | -12.0 | -5.7 | -6.3 | #363 |
| Alabama State Hornets | FCS | +4.2 | +4.6 | -0.4 | #92 |
Southern offense vs. Alabama State defense
-5.3 pts
Alabama State offense vs. Southern defense
+10.9 pts
Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), FBS and FCS on one scale. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites). An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone. Player-level matchups, team strengths/weaknesses, and the Vegas-line comparison arrive as those phases land.