← Matchups

Colgate

· 2-1 (2-0) · power -5.5 · #249

Our numberCOLG -10.4 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Fordham

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -18.4 · #369

Final COLG 24 · FOR 14 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineCOLG to win logged ours 28%

Our number: COLG by 3.6 — COLG to win.

Projected score 30–20 COLG – FOR

2026-08-28 · 6:00 PM Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field · Bronx, NY Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Colgate lead 16–6 · 22 meetings since 2003

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Fordham Rams ~~54 ranks~~

Colgate Raiders #89 rush offense Fordham Rams #35 run defense

Pass game edge Colgate Raiders ~~85 ranks~~

Colgate Raiders #112 pass offense Fordham Rams #197 pass defense

Run game even ~~14 ranks apart~~

Fordham Rams #186 rush offense Colgate Raiders #200 run defense

Pass game even ~~34 ranks apart~~

Fordham Rams #252 pass offense Colgate Raiders #218 pass defense

Colgate Raiders Balanced · 45% run Avg pace Fordham Rams Balanced · 45% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Colgate Raiders

LB Christian Magliacano 20 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #20 LB

RB Danny Shaban 395 rush yds · 3 TD · 7 rec #15 RB

WR Matt Fogler 13 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD #52 WR

DB Tymir Wynn 14 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT #160 DB

Fordham Rams

LB Andrew Osmun 29 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #5 LB

DB Justin Johnson 13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #34 DB

DL Lorenzo Riddick 9 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #125 DL

DL Jakub Mwangelwa 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #141 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Colgate Raiders	-5.5	-4.3	-1.2	#249
Fordham Rams	-18.4	-14.0	-4.3	#369

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Colgate offense vs Fordham defense+0.0 pts

Fordham offense vs Colgate defense-12.8 pts

Altitude · context only318 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.