San José State Spartans @ USC Trojans
2026-08-29 · 3:00 PM
· Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Los Angeles, CA
USC -17.7
Projected spread
63.0
Projected total
23–40
Proj score (away–home)
83%
USC win prob
Series
USC lead
6–0
· 6 meetings since 1995
San José State Spartans
Ken Niumatalolo · 59-54
Pass-heavy · 41% run
Avg pace
USC Trojans — defense
USC Trojans — offense
USC Trojans
Lincoln Riley · 81-24 · offense-minded
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense), not individual players — per-player ratings wait on the 2026 rosters. Identity, tempo, dual-threat and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.
Power breakdown
| Team | Div | Power | Off | Def (higher = better) | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José State Spartans MWC | FBS | -2.7 | -0.2 | -2.5 | #235 |
| USC Trojans B1G | FBS | +12.6 | +8.1 | +4.4 | #15 |
San José State offense vs. USC defense
-4.6 pts
USC offense vs. San José State defense
+10.7 pts
Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), FBS and FCS on one scale. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites). An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone. Player-level matchups, team strengths/weaknesses, and the Vegas-line comparison arrive as those phases land.