← Matchups

Stetson

· 1-2 · power -21.2 · #383
Our numberSDST -30.5 no book has priced this game

South Dakota State

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #114
Final STET 7 · SDST 70 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineSDST to win logged ours 96%

Our number: SDST by 33.2 — SDST to win.

Projected score 16–46 STET – SDST
2026-08-29 · 7:00 PM Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium · Brookings, SD Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 208 ranks
Stetson Hatters #238 rush offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 163 ranks
Stetson Hatters #256 pass offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 136 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense Stetson Hatters #243 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 121 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense Stetson Hatters #232 pass defense
Stetson Hatters Run-heavy · 71% run Ball-control South Dakota State Jackrabbits Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Stetson Hatters
DB Dylan Kelly 15 tkl · 1 PD #227 DB
DL Alex Yearwood 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #344 DL
DB Johnny DeLancy 6 tkl · 1 PD #363 DB
WR Landon Farco 5 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD #339 WR
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K Tristan Alvano 6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts #4 K
P Max Pelham 10 punts · 47.9 yd avg #3 P
TE Greyton Gannon 5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD #36 TE
WR Grahm Goering 13 rec · 254 yds #127 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Stetson Hatters -21.2 -8.1 -13.0 #383
South Dakota State Jackrabbits +5.6 +5.7 -0.1 #114

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Stetson offense vs South Dakota State defense-8.1 pts
South Dakota State offense vs Stetson defense+18.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,357 mi
Altitude · context only481 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.