← Matchups

Montana State

· 3-0 · power +20.4 · #35
Our numberMTST -28.8 no book has priced this game

Utah Tech

· 0-3 · power -10.2 · #297
Final MTST 54 · UTU 0 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMTST to win logged ours 5%

Our number: MTST by 20.6 — MTST to win.

Projected score 42–13 MTST – UTU
2026-08-29 · 10:00 PM Greater Zion Stadium · Saint George, UT Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Montana State lead 4–0 · 4 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Montana State Bobcats 198 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #16 rush offense Utah Tech Trailblazers #214 run defense
Pass game edge Montana State Bobcats 137 ranks
Montana State Bobcats #17 pass offense Utah Tech Trailblazers #154 pass defense
Run game edge Montana State Bobcats 51 ranks
Utah Tech Trailblazers #174 rush offense Montana State Bobcats #123 run defense
Pass game edge Montana State Bobcats 210 ranks
Utah Tech Trailblazers #230 pass offense Montana State Bobcats #20 pass defense
Montana State Bobcats Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg Utah Tech Trailblazers Balanced · 55% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Montana State Bobcats
WR Dane Steel 13 rec · 264 yds · 3 TD #31 WR
K Myles Sansted 5 FG · 14 XP · 29 pts #12 K
RB Adam Jones 198 rush yds · 3 TD · 6 rec #40 RB
WR Taco Dowler 16 rec · 180 yds · 1 TD #107 WR
Utah Tech Trailblazers
DB Jeremiah Jimoh 19 tkl · 3 PD #40 DB
DB Quincy Lejay 22 tkl · 1 PD #45 DB
P Ryan Marks 17 punts · 46.3 yd avg #7 P
DB Brevin Czosnyka 17 tkl #314 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Montana State Bobcats +20.4 +11.0 +9.4 #35
Utah Tech Trailblazers -10.2 -6.6 -3.6 #297

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Montana State offense vs Utah Tech defense+14.6 pts
Utah Tech offense vs Montana State defense-16.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 605 mi
Altitude · context only648 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.