New Mexico State Aggies @ Florida State Seminoles
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense), not individual players — per-player ratings wait on the 2026 rosters. Identity, tempo, dual-threat and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.
Power breakdown
| Team | Div | Power | Off | Def (higher = better) | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State Aggies CUSA | FBS | -3.1 | -2.8 | -0.3 | #251 |
| Florida State Seminoles ACC | FBS | +7.3 | +4.0 | +3.4 | #57 |
These situational spots are shown for context, not baked into the projection: we tested travel, altitude and rest against 6,000+ games and found the power and efficiency ratings already account for them, so adding them again would double-count.
Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), FBS and FCS on one scale. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites). An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone. Player-level matchups, team strengths/weaknesses, and the Vegas-line comparison arrive as those phases land.