North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense), not individual players — per-player ratings wait on the 2026 rosters. Identity, tempo, dual-threat and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.
Power breakdown
| Team | Div | Power | Off | Def (higher = better) | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels ACC | FBS | +1.1 | -1.6 | +2.7 | #149 |
| TCU Horned Frogs B12 | FBS | +9.9 | +5.8 | +4.1 | #32 |
These situational spots are shown for context, not baked into the projection: we tested travel, altitude and rest against 6,000+ games and found the power and efficiency ratings already account for them, so adding them again would double-count.
Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), FBS and FCS on one scale. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites). An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone. Player-level matchups, team strengths/weaknesses, and the Vegas-line comparison arrive as those phases land.