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Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ North Dakota State Bison

2026-08-29 · 5:30 PM · Fargodome · Fargo, ND
North Dakota State -14.9
Projected spread
58.2
Projected total
22–37
Proj score (away–home)
79%
North Dakota State win prob
Series North Dakota State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2015
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Charles Kelly
Run-heavy · 68% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 83 rush ypg
North Dakota State Bison — defense
DEFENSE OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
North Dakota State Bison — offense
North Dakota State Bison
Run-heavy · 67% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense), not individual players — per-player ratings wait on the 2026 rosters. Identity, tempo, dual-threat and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

Power breakdown

TeamDivPowerOffDef (higher = better)Rank
Jacksonville State Gamecocks CUSA FBS +1.6 +0.9 +0.6 #138
North Dakota State Bison FCS +14.1 +7.5 +6.6 #9
Jacksonville State offense vs. North Dakota State defense
-5.7 pts
North Dakota State offense vs. Jacksonville State defense
+6.9 pts
Forecast · at kickoff
Indoors — no weather factor
Travel · context only
Away team travels 1,072 mi

These situational spots are shown for context, not baked into the projection: we tested travel, altitude and rest against 6,000+ games and found the power and efficiency ratings already account for them, so adding them again would double-count.

Power = points vs. an average D1 team (Off + Def), FBS and FCS on one scale. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites). An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone. Player-level matchups, team strengths/weaknesses, and the Vegas-line comparison arrive as those phases land.