← Matchups

VMI

· 0-3 · power -22.1 · #384

Our numberIDST -32.6 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Idaho State

· 3-0 · power +6.8 · #105

Final VMI 10 · IDST 38 ML W our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineIDST to win logged ours 97%

Our number: IDST by 22.4 — IDST to win.

Projected score 11–44 VMI – IDST

2026-08-29 · 6:00 PM ICCU Dome · Pocatello, ID Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Idaho State Bengals ~~190 ranks~~

VMI Keydets #256 rush offense Idaho State Bengals #66 run defense

Pass game even ~~22 ranks apart~~

VMI Keydets #188 pass offense Idaho State Bengals #210 pass defense

Run game edge Idaho State Bengals ~~56 ranks~~

Idaho State Bengals #108 rush offense VMI Keydets #164 run defense

Pass game edge Idaho State Bengals ~~185 ranks~~

Idaho State Bengals #72 pass offense VMI Keydets #257 pass defense

VMI Keydets Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Idaho State Bengals Balanced · 43% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

VMI Keydets

DB Nic Land 22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #74 DB

DB Robert Powell 13 tkl · 2 PD #345 DB

DB EJ Wilborne 12 tkl · 1 INT #522 DB

DB Anthony Allen 10 tkl #876 DB

Idaho State Bengals

K Mason Lindberg 7 FG · 15 XP · 36 pts #1 K

DL Trehsyn Fesili 20 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #14 DL

DL Collin Lewis 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #44 DL

LB Nathan Reynolds 33 tkl · 3.0 TFL #32 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
VMI Keydets	-22.1	-14.8	-7.3	#384
Idaho State Bengals	+6.8	+5.5	+1.2	#105

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

VMI offense vs Idaho State defense-16.0 pts

Idaho State offense vs VMI defense+12.8 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,761 mi

Altitude · context only1,097 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.