Final
SUU 21 · MONT 28
ML W
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMONT to win logged
ours 77%
Our number: MONT by 10.9 — MONT to win.
Projected score
24–38
SUU – MONT
2026-08-29 · 9:00 PM
Washington-Grizzly Stadium · Missoula, MT
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Montana lead
6–0
· 6 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
104 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #37 rush offense
Montana Grizzlies #141 run defense
Pass game
edge Southern Utah Thunderbirds
109 ranks
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #67 pass offense
Montana Grizzlies #176 pass defense
Run game
edge Montana Grizzlies
162 ranks
Montana Grizzlies #91 rush offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #253 run defense
Pass game
edge Montana Grizzlies
103 ranks
Montana Grizzlies #20 pass offense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds #123 pass defense
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Run-heavy · 59% run
Avg pace
Montana Grizzlies
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
DB
Parker Vance
18 tkl · 4 PD · 3 INT
#4 DB
TE
Joshua Acord
11 rec · 128 yds · 3 TD
#3 TE
RB
Floyd Chalk
427 rush yds · 6 TD · 4 rec
#6 RB
DL
Myles Amey
9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#103 DL
Montana Grizzlies
RB
Eli Gillman
328 rush yds · 7 TD · 5 rec
#4 RB
WR
Brooks Davis
24 rec · 305 yds · 1 TD
#36 WR
DB
Brock Beaner
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#99 DB
LB
Peyton Wing
13 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#94 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Southern Utah offense vs Montana defense+0.4 pts
Montana offense vs Southern Utah defense+10.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 636 mi
Altitude · context only784 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.