← Matchups

Fairmont State

· 0-1 · power -7.9 · #275

Our numberDAY -9.3 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Dayton

· 2-0 · power -1.6 · #193

Final FAIR 20 · DAY 43 ML L our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineFAIR to win logged live now: DAY to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 70%

Our number: FAIR by 0.5 — FAIR to win.

Projected score 23–32 FAIR – DAY

2026-08-29 · 12:00 PM Welcome Stadium · Dayton, OH Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Dayton Flyers Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Fairmont State Falcons

DL Gavin Smith 5 tkl #61 DL

DL Jeffery Polk 14 tkl · 0.5 TFL #146 DL

DL Darrick Badley 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #422 DL

RB Joshua Jones 108 rush yds · 1 TD · 1 rec #186 RB

Dayton Flyers

TE Donovan Weatherly 8 rec · 110 yds · 2 TD #19 TE

DB Javawn Brooks 7 tkl · 3 INT #210 DB

DL Jace Schaefer 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #313 DL

DL Griffin Suren 4 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #352 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Fairmont State Falcons	-7.9	-1.7	-6.2	#275
Dayton Flyers	-1.6	-3.7	+2.1	#193

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Fairmont State offense vs Dayton defense-3.8 pts

Dayton offense vs Fairmont State defense+2.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.